Red Sun rising as Nepal poll results come in

Maoists in Nepal appeared to be marching towards becoming the single largest party as results began trickling in after the country's first popular election following the abolition of the monarchy.

This caused India to rapidly reassess its evaluation of Nepal and Indian business to recalibrate plans for that country. Out of 601 seats, 240 are to be elected through the first-past-the-poll system and 335 on the basis of proportional representation.

As the parliament will double as a constituent assembly to write Nepal's first republican constitution, the composition of this parliament is going to have a crucial bearing on the country's future polity.

By the evening of April 12, Maoists had won in 23 out of 240 directly elected constituencies and were leading in 65. Analysts from Kathmandu said a situation was not impossible where the President of Nepal would be Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda and the Prime Minister, Baburam Bhattarai. The two big actors in Nepal, the Government of India and Indian business is agog at the results.

Maoists had criticized Indian imperialist designs in Nepal and had vowed to curtail the role of India in decision making in the country.

The Maoists had also promised to overturn several treaty arrangements, including the trade and transit treaty between India and Nepal as being discriminatory. Under a Maoist government, China is likely to get the pride of place in infrastructure building.

Analysts predict a China-built rail link to Chitwan via Lhasa and Kathmandu, although there has been a demand to link Janakpur in the plains with Patna or Kolkata.

Chinese-made goods, already popular in Nepal, could find their way to India. And this could provoke India to go in for a measure that is dreaded by most Nepalis: The fencing of the border though unlikely immediately.