Revision in crop production estimates raises questions on credibility

Crop estimates have been way off the mark between the first and subsequent estimates and over the years this divergence has grown

The Central government, in its second advance estimate for foodgrains production for 2022-23 (July-June crop year) released a few weeks back, scaled up the wheat production for the 2021-22 crop year to 107.7 million tonnes.

According to the previous estimate, this production was estimated at 106 million tonnes. While the reasons for the scaling up haven’t been spelled out, market players and traders are dismayed.

They feel that if wheat production in the 2021-22 crop year was indeed almost 108 million tonnes, there was neither the need to impose any ban on exports nor the Centre's procurement should have fallen