RJD to focus on booths

Lalu unlikely to get more than 80 seats, feel Intelligence Bureau

Intelligence Bureau (IB) sources in Bihar believe that despite Lalu Prasad's confidence in predicting a return of Rabri Devi as chief minister, he is likely to be in big trouble if he gets less than 80 seats in the 243-seat Assembly.

This imminent danger is being anticipated on the basis of the just 64 seats having gone to the polls, because the assessment is that not just Muslims, but also Yadavs have defected to other parties in numbers large enough to affect the Rashtriya Janata Dal's (RJD) chances and denting the "MY" (Muslim-Yadav) factor badly.

In Gaya, for instance, where elections have already concluded, a candidate who was with the Congress was denied the seat because the RJD had held it twice.

He contested as an independent. Because of anti-incumbency, a large number of Yadavs must have voted for him and the assessment is that he will win the seat.

Similarly, in Gopalganj, due to go to polls in the last phase, there is a feeling that Lalu's candidates need to be defeated just to teach him a lesson, though the overwhelming opinion is that the Yadav vote must be given only to a Yadav. So a Yadav floated by any other party is going to get a part of the vote.

Because of all this, the IB sees at least 50-60 such constituencies where the margin of victory""or defeat""is going to narrow, 1000 votes or less. This makes the already powerful district administration even more powerful.

Although the Election Commission has declared that it is going to be proactive, the deployment of forces is crucial for the seats where the margin of victory or defeat is likely to be narrow.

Polling booths, in relation to law and order, are classified into three categories by teh poll panel""normal, which are guarded by police and home guards; sensitive, which are guarded by the state armed police; and the hyper-sensitive, which are guarded by central paramilitary forces.

It is impossible to rig the heavily-guarded central force-guarded booths. So in constituencies where victory is uncertain, the RJD will concentrate on normal polling booths where security is minimal.

The trick is to ensure massive police and home guard presence in the polling booths in areas where a certain community is present that might vote in favour of the rival, while ensuring minimal security in one's own booths. So while the rival is prevented from rigging, there is some leeway in your own booths.

This can make the crucial victory-defeat differences in the uncertain constituencies.

Already, there are complaints that the Election Commission is unhappy about the way central paramilitary forces have been deployed in the last round. But the Intelligence Bureau says it is missing the point.