Rosy winters ahead for power supply

The slight nip in the air last month has had a positive spin-off on the power situation in the country.

The average shortage of power has more than halved to 4.8 per cent in September from 10.4 per cent in the start of the current financial year. The peak deficit has also come down to 10 per cent from almost 14 per cent in April.

"Due to good weather conditions and reduced demand, the situation is likely to remain comfortable for the next few months," said an official at the power planning and monitoring agency Central Electricity Authority (CEA).

The peak deficit for the six-month period from April to September 2007 has come down to 12.1 per cent from 12.2 per cent in the same period last year. The overall power shortage has also reduced to 7 per cent from 8 per cent a year ago.

Region-wise, the highest peak deficits are in the western region. Gujarat had a peak deficit of 24 per cent in September though average power shortfall was much lower at 11 per cent. Maharashtra reported a peak deficit of 14 per cent during the month and an average deficit of 5.4 per cent.

These are the country's most industrialised states.

In the eastern region, Bihar was the most power-starved state in September, with a peak deficit of 15.4 per cent, though average power shortage was marginally lower at 13 per cent.

According to a senior official at CEA, the slippages in power capacity addition have affected the power supply at a time when demand for power is growing. Power capacity addition in the first half of the year has been less than a third of the targeted 10,000 Mw, according to the latest figures.

However, industry experts feel that capacity addition should be accompanied with power reforms, which would help reduce transmission and distribution losses and theft. Average aggregate technical and commercial (AT&C) losses in India are at a high level of 35 per cent.

At the end of the current year, says the CEA official, the power supply situation would have certainly become better because by then about 14,000 Mw would have been added.

If the government manages 14,000 Mw, it would be about 83 per cent of the targeted addition of 17,000 Mw for the year.

For the Eleventh Five Year Plan (2007-12), the targeted addition was over 78,000 Mw, which has now been revised to 71,000 Mw. Most experts say the actual addition could be anywhere between 50,000 Mw to 60,000 Mw.