Season ends with 13% shortfall

MONSOON WATCH

The monsoon has ended this year, leaving the country about 13 per cent short of its normal quota of rainfall. In fact, none of the four contiguous regions have received normal rainfall between June 1 and September 30.

The deficiency has been the maximum, nearly 21 per cent, in the north-western zone, followed by about 15 per cent in the south peninsular India, 11 per cent in central India and 5 per cent in the Northeast.

Actual monsoon rainfall till September 29 was 777.3 mm, against the normal 889.3 mm. Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, 23 received normal rainfall and the rest deficient. In terms of districts, about 289 (56 per cent) were in the normal or excess categories and 227 (44 per cent) in the deficient and scanty categories.

The shortfall, coupled with its skewed spread over the season, has jeopardised kharif crop production prospects over more than 40 per cent of the geographical area. The output of paddy, coarse cereals and pulses is feared to be affected adversely though that of oilseeds and cotton may exceed expectations.

A good deal of area normally planted with paddy, coarsegrains and pulses has remained unsown. The area shortfall is estimated officially to be around 2.4 million hectares under paddy, 3.2 million hectares under coarsegrains and 1.6 million hectares under pulses.

On the other hand, the area under kharif oilseed crops is reckoned to be higher by about 2 million hectares. Similarly, the area under cotton is estimated to have increased by over 800,000 hectares.

The features of this year's rains have been good pre- and post-monsoon showers; a late onset of the monsoon, leaving July mostly dry; good rainfall in August and again a weak monsoon in September.

While the pre-monsoon rainfall in June had facilitated land preparation and crop sowing in several areas, the early planted crops faced moisture stress in July due to lack of rains.

Though August rainfall facilitated brisk crop sowing, these crops, too, suffered from moisture deficiency due to the sluggish advance of the monsoon in September, especially in west Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, west Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Vidharba, Marathwada, Telangana and Tamil Nadu.

However, good showers towards the fag end of the monsoon and in the first few days of October are believed to have benefited standing crops.

The paddy crop is currently in the grain development to grain maturing stage in the north and flowering to grain formation stage in other parts of the country. Post-monsoon rain will benefit paddy in most areas, except where the crop is almost mature and does not need any more water.

Many other crops, especially those sown early, are in their grain maturing to early harvesting stages. As such, the impact of the post-monsoon showers will be limited for them.

The present wet spell is likely to herald an early beginning of the rabi sowing season, especially in the areas that remained unsown in the kharif season due to want of soil moisture.

The monsoon started withdrawing from September 24, instead of the usual date of September 1, from western Rajasthan (see accompanying map). By around September 27, it had receded from the bulk of the north-western part of the country.

The subsequent showers in this region is attributed to post-monsoon weather systems.

The total water storage in 71 major reservoirs till September 24 was about 64 per cent of the designed capacity. It was about 9 per cent above last season's corresponding position, but nearly 11 per cent below the average level in the past 10 years.