Sept consumer inflation seen picking up from record low

Industrial output expected to have grown 4.8% in August, faster than the 4.2% seen in July

Retail inflation likely picked up in September, driven by higher food prices, but will remain comfortably below the Reserve Bank of India's target and allow room for further policy easing, a Reuters poll showed.

The consumer price index was expected to rise 4.3% last month, with forecasts in the survey of over 20 economists ranging between 3.6% and 5.0%.

In August, consumer inflation fell to a record low of 3.66%, down from nearly 9% last year.

Falling commodity prices, which have fueled a global disinflationary trend, pushed Indian inflation down over the past year, giving the RBI room to ease monetary policy four times since January, bringing its key repo rate down to a 4-1/2 year low of 6.75%.

 

Even if inflation picks up in September as economists predict, it would still be comfortably below the RBI's 6% target for January.

"The central bank's CPI inflation target of 6% for January 2016 is unlikely to come under threat, as core inflation should remain anchored amid signs of continued economic slack," said Capital Economics' Shilan Shah in a research note.

Still, with rainfall 14% below normal in the June-September monsoon season, food prices could be affected in coming months.

The RBI estimates inflation will be 5.8% in January.

Industrial output is expected to have grown 4.8% in August, faster than the 4.2% seen in July. Poll forecasts ranged from 2.2 to 6.7%.

Although a survey last week showed manufacturing activity slowed to a seven-month low in September, factory production has been growing above 2% since November.