So, Barack Hussein Obama will remain the most powerful person in the world for four more years, after all. As he sleep-walked through the first presidential debate on 3 October, I had expressed my despondency in these pages: “Will Candidate Obama of 2008 now resurface?... Perhaps like Senator Kerry in 2004, Romney will blow the boost he gets from winning the first debate”. Obama did bounce back.
I do not claim any superior powers of divination. I have been following instead a brilliant analysis of the mind-boggling variety of polls in the United States, Nate Silver’s Five Thirty Eight (referring to the strength of the electoral college) blog in the New York Times. It has consistently put the incumbent ahead, even in the dark days after the Denver debate. The probability of an Obama win had then declined to about 60 per cent, which has since peaked at 90+ per cent. The last Five Thirty Eight forecast was of 313 electoral votes and 50.8 per cent of the popular vote for the president, even as all other analysts worth their salt were calling it a dead heat. Silver’s forecasts of state-wise electoral votes and the percentage of popular vote all turned out absolutely correct.
My unshakable belief in this forecast notwithstanding, the emergence of the result was mesmerising. It was like the last ball of the last over of a T20 match with your favourite team (which you know should win) needing two runs to win and only one wicket remaining. Any result is possible, and to your great relief, the ball sails over the long-off boundary for a six!
But this thrill comes nowhere near the exhilaration of that first Wednesday in November four years ago. That was the once-in-a-lifetime moment of an idealistic outsider prevailing by challenging all precedents and myths. Yesterday’s was a workaday event, when a weary incumbent barely scraped home, having nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory along the way.
American pundits will doubtless come up with erudite analyses of voter behaviour. Important as these would be, the nature of Obama leadership and its consequences in the second term would be of far greater consequence not just for the United States but the rest of the world as well.
Barack Obama came into office carrying an incredible burden of the dire American and global economic and security situation, compounded by his own grand promises and the world’s sky-high expectations of him. He faced implacable opposition from the Republicans, who opposed every measure he proposed. To add insult to the injury, some of them even questioned whether he was born an American and implied that he was a Muslim. The Republicans won control of the House of Representatives in 2010 and a legislative gridlock pushed the world’s largest economy almost to defaulting on its obligations. The economy was slow to respond and unemployment remained at or above 8 per cent for most of the last four years. All presidents except Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan lost their jobs under such circumstances.
Obama learnt through the school of hard knocks that governing a fractious country is a different and far more difficult task than even becoming the first non-white president of the most powerful nation. Although he managed to rescue the American auto industry from the brink of collapse and pushed through his reform of health care, just simply remaining afloat consumed most of his energies, especially in the increasingly clamorous last two years.
Now freed of the daunting task of running for office again, will the original inspirational Obama resurface? More importantly, even if he does, will he be allowed the necessary space by a still-divided Congress? Many observers, including the New York Times columnist David Brooks think that the second Obama term would be much the same as the first, with the recalcitrant Republicans hobbling him at every step. The Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman thinks this is blackmail by the Republicans (“The blackmail caucus,” reproduced in Business Standard, November 4, 2012).
The acid test for the re-elected president will come soon enough. He has to renegotiate the public debt limit with the Congress early next year to avoid last year’s financial cliff. That will not be easy, especially in view of the just-concluded bruising campaign. Obama has as yet not demonstrated any significant ability to deal with the opposition, even as he has chanted the bi-partisanship mantra ever since 2008.
President Clinton was here as well. The Democrats were mauled in the Congressional elections of 1994, leading to derisive talk of a half-term presidency. Clinton the consummate politician finessed the resurgent House Speaker Newt Gingrich by adopting most of his agenda and easily won the re-election. He remains the most popular politician even a dozen years out of office. The key question is will Obama learn the relevant lessons from the Big Dog who acted as his indefatigable mentor in the campaign.
The world economy is too fragile at the moment to face the spectre of a long-drawn American economic stalemate any time soon. Its myriad economic problems notwithstanding, there is no gainsaying the United States’ leadership of the global economy. China may grow and Europe may wither, but the world literally catches a cold when the U S sneezes. The contagion that followed the American financial crisis in 2008 is ample evidence of this.
The economic agenda for the US is fairly evident: continued revival of its economy through superior infrastructure, productivity and technology. Obama’s deft handling of the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy shows that he is not afraid of using his formidable leadership abilities and government power to deal with a crisis situation. The nihilistic Tea Party platform stands largely rejected, which is an opportunity for Obama’s fresh initiatives.
Mr President, you said “I believe we seize this future together again,” in your victory speech. The world wishes you Godspeed and .good fortune in your unfinished tasks.
The writer taught at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, and helped set up the Institute of Rural Management, Anand
