So shall you reap: More acreage to check drop in rabi output

RABI CROP SURVEY: Part-I

Contrary to apprehensions of a poor rabi harvest this time, experts feel the output may be the same or slightly better than last season's. While the output of wheat and pulses, notably gram, may turn out to be higher than last year's, that of oilseeds may be the same or drop marginally despite a record rapeseed-mustard harvest in Rajasthan.

According to experts, official sources and trade representatives, production of wheat, the major rabi cereal, is likely to be 73-73.5 million tonnes, against 72 million tonnes last year.

The output of pulses, too, is expected to be over 9 million tonnes, against about 8.4 million tonnes in the last rabi. However, the harvest of oilseeds like rapeseed-mustard, groundnut and sunflower may turn out to be around 10.5 million tonnes, against nearly 11.17 million tonnes in the last season.

Harvesting of most crops is currently on in the country's main north-western rabi belt. The fresh produce of wheat and oilseeds, especially that of rapeseed-mustard, has begun arriving in the mandis, pushing wholesale prices down.

Mustard prices have already dropped to below the minimum support price level in several markets, especially in Rajasthan, the largest mustard producing state.

Wheat prices, though still slightly above the support price level, are projected to drop to around the minimum support price of Rs 650 a quintal soon in the main producer states of Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh.

At present, the wheat-based industry and traders are mostly buying good quality wheat at prices above Rs 700 a quintal in various states.

Fears about below-normal rabi output were based largely on the inadequacy of rainfall (practically no winter showers) in the main rabi belt, abnormally high temperature in February and hail and thunderstorms in early March.

However, these apprehensions have largely been belied by copious supply of irrigation water through both canals and tubewells, and the high-temperature phase being short-lived, followed by an appreciable drop in temperature in March-end. Besides, even when the day temperature was high, the night temperature had remained almost normal.

The most significant feature that boosts optimism about the rabi output is the expansion of the total sown acreage by about 3 million hectares.

According to the latest information received by the agriculture ministry from the states, the cumulative acreage under all rabi crops is around 64.2 million hectares, against last season's 61.2 million hectares. Barring maize and some minor oilseeds like sunflower, all other crops have witnessed higher plantings in the current rabi.

Wheat acreage is reckoned to have risen by some 3,85,000 hectares despite a diversion of about 50,000 hectares of traditional wheat area in Punjab to other crops.

The wheat area in Madhya Pradesh, too, has shrunk this year by about 6,20,000 hectares as the crop could not be planted for want of adequate soil moisture at the time of sowing. But in most other states, wheat has been planted on a relatively larger scale this year.

Rice, grown generally in the southern peninsula and north-eastern states during this season, is officially estimated to have gained about 9,15,000 hectares in acreage. The area under coarse cereals is up by about 1,50,000 hectares.

Pulses have been sown on about 124.1 million hectares, against 13 million hectares in the last season. Almost half of this increase is accounted for by gram which has gained about 5,36,000 hectares in planted area. The maximum area expansion has been witnessed in Bihar (almost 60 per cent), Tamil Nadu (about 27 per cent) and Rajasthan (about 22 per cent).

On the other hand, pulses acreage has declined by about 26 per cent in Assam. In the case of oilseeds, the area coverage in the present rabi has risen marginally to 11.42 million hectares from last rabi's 11.04 million hectares.

The bulk of this increase is attributed to higher planting of rapeseed-mustard which has been sown over about 7.34 million hectares, against last year's 7.1 million hectares.

Sunflower has also been grown over marginally larger area of 1.41 million hectare, compared to last rabi's 1.37 million hectares. Other oilseeds, like safflower, sesamum and linseed, have witnessed slightly lower plantings this year.