On Sundays, for nearly three months this year, protestors gathered around the picturesque Hoan Kiem Lake in Vietnam’s capital, Hanoi, to demonstrate against China’s increasingly aggressive posturing in the South China Sea, until the authorities finally came down on them.
In communist-ruled Vietnam, demonstrations of this kind are rare. That these were allowed to continue for this long indicate the gravity of the long-running maritime dispute that has troubled this region.
Last week, after a report in the Financial Times said an Indian Navy vessel had been confronted by a Chinese warship off the coast of Vietnam, New Delhi has also been actively pulled into this tangle. India’s involvement in this part of the world is now in focus.
While India might to wish to play a greater strategic role in Southeast Asia, its participation is likely to be curtailed not only because of the complexities of the South China Sea (SCS) dispute but also by virtue of its own limited capabilities.
AMBIGUOUS CLAIMS
In a row that involves six Asian countries — China, Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei — and one that has already seen armed conflict, including those between China and Vietnam in 1974 and 1988, the ambiguity of claims remains a fundamental problem.
China claims approximately three-fourths of the SCS, including the Paracel and Spratley Islands, citing historical affiliations with the mainland, an assertion that Vietnam has opposed with its own version of history. The Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei have also laid claim to parts of the sea.
“This has been going on for a very long time,” said Rodolfo Severino of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies and a former secretary-general of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean). “But I don’t see an early resolution because of the unclear claims. Everyone seems to be working to clarify the claims.”
In such murky conditions, tensions have flared, as was the case earlier this year, a situation that prompted even Singapore’s foreign ministry to seek a clarification from Beijing when a Chinese maritime surveillance vessel visited the city-state.
“We have repeatedly said that we think it is in China's own interests to clarify its claims in the SCS with more precision, as the current ambiguity as to their extent has caused serious concerns in the international maritime community. The recent incidents have heightened these concerns and raise serious questions in relation to the interpretation of the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos),” the ministry had said in a statement in June.
The Unclos allows for claims to maritime areas to be made using either the principle of a 200-mile exclusive economic zone or the continental shelf theory. Although some parties have made their claims in accordance with this, others such as China and Taiwan have not.
At stake is not only the stability of one of the world’s key shipping lanes but also significant amounts of hydrocarbon. resources, including oil and natural gas. While a Chinese estimate points to the possibility of up to 213 billion barrels of oil, another by the US Geological Survey has put the number at 28 billion barrels. Likewise, there are approximations of the large amount of natural gas that may be available, with some studies suggesting the presence of 900 trillion cubic feet of these resources.
Given this, countries involved in the dispute, primarily the Philippines and Vietnam, have recently sought to develop reserves in the SCS that they see as within their jurisdiction, a strategy that hasn’t gone down well with Beijing, which claims large parts of the sea as its own.
Thus, many of the recent incidents concerning these countries in the SCS have involved vessels undertaking exploration-related activities. For instance, in June this year, there were protests in Hanoi after a Chinese vessel supposedly damaged equipment used by a Vietnamese energy firm’s survey ship.
China is against unilateral exploration and production of resource assets that it claims are within its waters. Some see this year’s rise in altercations on the disputed waters as a set of warnings from Beijing.
But both Vietnam and Philippines have chosen to continue on their own, with exploration and production activities typically involving a foreign partner. Both countries are also looking at offering new blocks to international exploration firms, a step that could further escalate tensions.
Despite the animosity, the importance of China’s mammoth economy, now the world’s second largest, cannot be ignored by Southeast Asian countries. In a move that surprised few, after months of constant bickering, Philippine President Benigno Aquino packed his bags and headed to Beijing last week for his first state visit. His primary agenda: trade and investment.
