Sporadic lockdowns to cost India $1.25 billion per week: Barclays

Barclays has maintained FY22 real GDP growth forecast at 11 per cent y-o-y - at least for now, cautioning against the downside risk if the covid-19 lockdowns and night curfews are tightened further

The sporadic lockdowns / mobility curbs and night curfews put in place across key economic hubs in India in the past few days are likely to cost the nation $1.25 billion per week, says the latest report dated April 12 from Barclays. This increase, Barclays said, reflects modest tightening of activity curbs, and the widening geographical spread of the second Covid wave.

“Taking into account rolling COVID curbs, if the current restrictions remain in place until the end of May, we estimate that the cumulative loss of activity could amount to around $10.5 billion, or around 0.34 percentage point (pp)