StatsGuru: 17-March-2014

Decoding the electorate for this year's general elections

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The run-up to the general elections of 2014 has begun. Already, questions are being asked - as they are before most elections - whether these polls will be different in character from those that went before. It is worth checking exactly what changes the electorate has undergone since 2009 - and since 2004.

As Table 1 shows, per capita income has certainly increased considerably. Another major feature is that voters are far more connected than they were in 2009 or 2004; Tables 2 and 3 show that broadband connections and wireless subscribers have both leaped up. That has led many to suppose that voting patterns might also have changed, with a more "national" electorate.

There is also the question of first-time voters. As Table 4 shows, the 2014 election will have twice as many new voters as 2004 or 2009. More and more of these voters are literate, as Table 5 suggests.

By various other indicators, the electorate is also doing better than in 2004 or 2009. The unemployment rate has declined, as Table 6 shows. And, the wages of daily labourers, shown in Table 7, have seen a big jump in the past few years.