India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), said last week that consumer price inflation would not be as high in the coming fiscal year as earlier expected. While the RBI had said it could be around 5 per cent in the first half of 2022-23 (FY23), most agencies were expecting that level for the full year. The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its last meeting for FY22 projected the annual consumer inflation at 4.5 per cent for FY23, and close to 4 per cent in the second half of the year (chart 1).
The MPC was also