Confusion seems to shroud the groundnut industry as production estimates by two of the leading associations in Gujarat show a huge difference of about four lakh tonnes for 2009-10.
The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) has estimated 13.80 lakh tonnes of groundnut production in Gujarat on the one hand, Saurashtra Oil Miller Association (SOMA) predicts 9.5 to 10 lakh tonnes output for the same year.
However, many believe that SEA's estimates are more accurate than SOMA. Some of the millers in Saurashtra region also agree to forecast by SEA.
Groundnut Promotion Council of SEA decided to undertake groundnut crop survey in groundnut growing areas in Gujarat, especially during harvesting to assess the size and quality of the crop.
A 15-member team visited the leading groundnut producing districts such as Amreli, Rajkot, Junagadh, Porbandar and Jamnagar from October 2-4, 2009. The team took stock of various farms in these districts and random samples were drawn from various fields and counting of the pods were studied. Maturity and the quality of the pods were also studied. The apex body finally arrived at the estimate of 13.8 lakh tonnes of groundnut production in Gujarat.
“Our figure is all based on research work. SEA team visited groundnut growing areas, examined and interacted with farmers, millers and traders. It is true that compared to last year sowing has come down but rains at the end sowing season improved the yield and crop”, said BV Mehta, executive director, SEA.
Mehta attributed shift to cotton crop to the fall in groundnut acreage in Gujarat. "Farmers are not getting better prices for groundnut and manyy farmers switched over to groundnut from cotton crop in Saurashtra – Gujarat in last two three years,” he added.
A Jamnagar-based miller, who is associated with SOMA, said, “SOMA has estimated lower output. However, SEA has forecast higher production than SOMA's estimates. The groundnut production will not be more than 12.5 lakh tonnes this year. Some of the top brass of SOMA and millers are trying to make the market volatile by giving lower production figures but it will not work as everybody knows the truth.”
It may be mentioned here that members of SOMA are also at logger heads over the issue of edible oil adulteration and price inflation by some of the members of the trade body.
“Production will surely come down but not to the extent which SOMA suggests. The output estimates of SEA is believable. If we talk about market, edible oil price will not increase as India has more than sufficient stock of edible oil. Groundnut oil will not also increase so much as it is used only in Gujarat,” said Badruddin Khan, senior research analyst, Angel Commodities.
