Studies buttress country’s views on emission caps.
The results of five independent India-specific studies on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have indicated that the country’s per capita GHG emissions will continue to be well below the global average of 2005 even after 20 years from now.
The results will strengthen the Indian resolve to oppose the attempts of the developed world to make developing countries, including India, agree for a mandatory cap on GHG emissions at the forthcoming United Nations Climate Conference in Copenhagen.
The results, announced by Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia here today, estimates India’s per capita GHG emission in 2030-01 to be between 2.77 tonnes and 5 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). Four of the five studies estimated that even in 2031, India’s per capita emissions would stay under 4 tonnes of CO2e, which is lower than global per capita emissions of 4.22 tonnes of CO2e in 2005.
The key drivers of the range of these estimates are the assumptions on gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates, penetration of clean energy, energy efficiency improvements, etc. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had recently approved an enhanced energy efficiency mission, the possible outcome of which has been embedded into the study, it is learnt.
Of the five studies, three were conducted by the National Council of Applied Economic Research, The Energy Research Institute and the Integrated Research and Action for Development, with the support of the environment ministry. The remaining two studies were carried out by Mckinsey. Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh said the studies were meant to generate debate and discussions on the run-up to the Copenhagen conference in December.
“We want a fair and equitable agreement at Copenhagen. India should be seen as part of the solution. Such studies are meant to see that our negotiators are armed properly on the basis of science based facts,” Ramesh said.
On December 7, country heads, environment ministers and officials from 192 countries are expected to meet at Copenhagen for the 15th annual conference of the signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
The meeting is to base its discussions on the agendas set by the previous meetings, most importantly the one at Kyoto in 1997. Almost all participants, except the US, the world’s largest GHG emitter historically, had signed the framework agreement on GHG reduction at Kyoto.
