Tech view: Buying conviction seems lacking

The markets opened on a quiet note and proceeded to drift lower as the bulls paused for breath after a big uptick session on Tuesday. This was along expected lines as advocated yesterday.

The market breadth was positive as the combined exchange figures were 2536:1373. The capitalisation of breadth was negative as the commensurate figures were Rs 8344 crore:Rs 9792 crore.

The indices have closed at the lower end of the intraday range as bulls lacked the conviction to buy even on declines. That the market internals were positive indicated a buying bias across select small/midcap counters.

The 4700/5050 range specified for Wednesday was not tested in either direction. The coming session is likely to witness a range of 4760 on declines and 4890 on advances.

The tighter range is due to the smaller base effect of Wednesday. The traded volumes above the 486 levels will determine the strength of the bulls as this level is the bullish pivot for the coming session.

The market internals indicate a lower turnover as the participation levels fell. The number of trades decreased and the average ticket size was lower, indicating weak buying by retail players. The maket capitalisation was lower in line with a downtick session.

The outlook for the markets on Thursday is that of caution as the overseas cues and derivatives expiry will set the near-term trend. Big ticket trades must still be avoided.