Tribals desert Cong for BJP in 3 states

 Not unless the BJP manages to retain the support of social groups that have attached themselves to it in this Assembly elections.

 An analysis of electoral data relating to the margins by which the BJP won elections shows that in a number of seats in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the tribal vote has gone strongly in the BJP's favour.

 In Madhya Pradesh, the desertion of the tribals has hit the Congress really hard for the first time.

 The BJP has won in tribal constituencies by large margins. Unless it can repeat this in the Lok Sabha elections, its parliamentary tally is likely to slide.

 Consider the figures. In the Jhabua-Ratlam region, long considered a fiefdom of the Congress, BJP leaders, especially second generation leaders, have won by huge margins of votes.

 The same goes for Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. The average margin between the winning BJP and the losing Congress candidate is 10,000 votes, a big margin by any standards in an Assembly election.

 The reason for this are manifold. In Chhattisgarh, a subtle Hindutva campaign by the BJP