Some leading lights of the United Front yesterday said they suspected the loyalty of the Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC), the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Janata Dal (JD) group led by Bihar Chief Minister Laloo Prasad Yadav.
Though leaders of all these parties have stressed that they would not support the Congress, they may switch loyalty once the Deve Gowda government falls, a JD leader said.
TMC chief Moopanar is considered a dark horse by almost all constituents of the front. Some UF leaders wanted that Moopanar should be the UFs emissary to negotiate a compromise with the Congress.
He was mum and did not say anything When his name was first proposed by some UF leaders at the Steering committee meting on Monday, a United Front leader pointed out. It was then that Laloo Yadav took the responsibility to negotiate.
If Moopanar did strike a deal with the Congress, specially if it involved his becoming the Prime Minister rather than Kesari, then there could have a domino effect on other front partners, many front leaders said.
Mulayam Singh Yadavs closeness to Congress President Sitaram Kesari is a cause of concern for the UF unity. It may be possible that the SP chief has already given an undertaking for support to Kesari, a TDP leader said. Yadav may have thought of a long-term political alliance with the Congress for Uttar Pradesh, where the UFs other partners are irrelevant.
Similar could be the situation with Laloo Yadav who is rattled with the BJPs growing influence in Bihar and looking for a formidable combination to face the BJPs challenge.
Also, Laloo is unhappy with the CBIs attitude in the fodder scam and has grudges against Deve Gowda for not protecting him adequately, a Janata Dal leader close to Laloo Prasad said.
These leaders insisted they had no truck with the Congress. Laloo Prasad Yadav said: We stick to our stand of staying united like a rock and there will be no compromise by any of our partners with the congress leadership. Ever since the bickerings started between Gowda and Kesari, neither have I contacted Kesari nor he has done that.
If through dialogues, the present crisis is resolved there must be some dialogue with the Congress, he held, but ruled out the possibility of any of the UF partners compromising with the Congress.
Those who suspect the two Yadavs of dissembling also said they expected the Left parties would allow a Congress government to survive, for fear that an early election may favour the BJP, the Left principal political adversary.
The secular logic which brought the UF may force the Left to abstain from voting and ensure the Congress led coalition governments survival, one of them said.
The DMK (17 seats), TMC (20), SP(17) and Laloos group (22) would together account for about 76 Lok Sabha seat and it becomes 220 when added to the Congress Lok Sabha strength. As against this the BJP and its allies have 193 seats which becomes 204 after including the support from the 11 Bahujan Samaj Partys MPs.
At a second UF standing committee meeting yesterday, commitment to work unitedly under Gowdas leadership was reiterated.
Some UF leaders said they hoped the threat of mid-term polls would ultimately force the Congress to fall in line. Shanker Singh Vaghelas fate is to be decided in a byelection on April 7. If he loses to the BJP, it may scare the Congress and force them to reconsider their decision, one UF leader said.
They also say that ever since the JMM payoff case has come to light, all MPs are very scared of switching loyalty in the existing situation. Who knows there will be some public interest litigation and these MPs will be in jail, another senior United Front leader said.
