There is no liquidity crunch here. Betting may be illegal, but bookies are gearing up for a Rs 15,000 crore business as India goes to polls this summer.
Bets of over Rs 500 crore have already been accepted over the past two days in the satta bazaar, as the betting market is called, in the major centres of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh.
The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is a hot favourite among punters as the allinace which will be closest to forming the next government. But going by the projections by bookies, the UPA too will have to struggle. While at least 272 seats are required for a majority in the 543-member House, bookies are of view that UPA can get a maximum of 230 seats. The Congress’ share in this will be 140 to 155 seats.
| THE ODDS | |||||
| Congress | BJP | BSP | |||
| Seats | Odds* | Seats | Odds* | Seats | Odds* |
| 140 | 35 paise | 24-Apr | 25 paise | 25 | 30 paise |
| 145 | 70 paise | 120 | 70 paise | 30-Jan | 70 paise |
| 150 | Rs 1.5 | 125 | Rs 1.10 | 35 | Rs 1.15 |
| 155 | Rs 1.60 | 130 | Rs 1.70 | 40 | Rs 2.10 |
| 160 | Rs 2.70 | 135 | Rs 2.30 | 41 | Rs 5.00 |
| 165 | Rs 4.00 | 140 | Rs 3.00 | * (on every rupee) | |
| 145 | Rs 4.50 | ||||
The odds for UPA managing to get 230 sets are 78 paise for every rupee bet. On the other hand, the BJP- led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to get a maximum of 200 seats and the odds have been set at Rs 1.35 on a rupee.
The Third Front is a distant third. The odds for this formation of assorted parties getting even 120-130 seats are Rs 12 to a rupee. “It’s a lame horse,” a bookie said.
Bookies said as per their analysis of the voting pattern, the holiday season and live telecast of Indian premier league matches will play a spoilsport for BJP as the upper middle class and middle class sections that traditionally vote for the party will largely stay away.
Also, there is a belief that Lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) will support UPA after elections.
