Job growth in the US unexpectedly stagnated in August, adding to the pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S Bernanke and President Barack Obama to rouse an economy that's at risk of stalling two years after the last recession ended.
Payrolls were unchanged, the weakest reading since September 2010, the Labor Department said yesterday in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey called for a gain of 68,000. The jobless rate held at 9.1 per cent.
"It's a very, very difficult labour market," said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. "We have an economy that's just muddling through."
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 2.5 per cent to close at 1,173.97 in New York yesterday. Ten-year Treasury yields sank to 1.99 per cent at 4:34 pm in New York from 2.13 per cent late on 1 September. The dollar extended its longest rally since January.
"We're calling for a mild recession at this point," said Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas in New York. "We'll see QE3 definitely," she said, referring to a third round of large-scale asset purchases by the Fed. "It helps put a floor under the economy and stabilise things."
The report raised the political stakes for Obama as he prepares to address a joint session of Congress next week. An unemployment rate stuck above nine per cent has helped push Obama's disapproval rating to an all-time high, according to a Quinnipiac University Aug. 16-27 poll of 2,730 registered voters. Some 52 per cent disapprove of Obama's job performance, up from 46 per cent in July.
OPTIONS LIMITED
Still, Obama's options will be limited by opposition to increased spending from Republicans in Congress.
"Even if the president announces a bold job creation plan next Thursday, the chances of it getting through Congress are not very large," Christina Romer, a professor of economics at the University of California-Berkley and a former chief of Obama's Council of Economic Advisors, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.
Political infighting over the budget and mounting fear of a default in Europe caused the S&P 500 to plummet 17 per cent from July 22 to Aug. 8, prompting companies and consumers to cut back. The lack of hiring is one reason Bernanke last week said the central bank still has tools available to stimulate growth.
FED CHOICES
Options for the Fed include extending the maturity of Treasury securities in its $1.65 trillion portfolio to push down long-term interest rates, purchasing more Treasuries, or expanding the range of securities it buys, Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., said in an interview yesterday on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop" with Betty Liu.
The economy expanded at a 1 per cent pace in the second quarter following a 0.4 per cent gain in the first three months of the year, the Commerce Department reported last month. Consumer spending grew 0.4 per cent, the smallest increase since the last three months of 2009.
"The macroeconomic environment has remained difficult for consumers who continue to face high unemployment rates, high gasoline and high food costs," Rick Dreiling, chairman and chief executive officer at Dollar General Corp., said on an Aug. 30 teleconference with analysts. The Goodlettsville, Tennessee- based company is the biggest dollar discount chain in the US
