Gujarat Chief Minister Sankarsinh Vaghela's victory in the Radhanpur by-poll has blocked the BJP's chances to return to power in the state and strengthen its case for staking a claim at the Centre as well.
The timing of its defeat in Radhanpur could not have been more ominous for the BJP. It comes after a strong showing by the party in the Assembly polls in Punjab and in by-elections in Madhya Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh.
A success in Radhanpur would have rounded out its streak of luck. The quicksand nature of Gujarat politics would have ensured a large enough defection from Rashtriya Janata Party and brought the BJP back to power if Vaghela had lost. That would have also improved its bargaining capabilities in the fluid political situation in New Delhi.
In itself, the margin of 13,994 votes which resulted in Vaghela's victory is not big enough to indicate that the new Chief Minister has enhanced his popularity in the past six months. He drew 57,569 votes while his BJP rival Sankarbhai Chaudhary got 43,585 votes.The BJP's defeat is, among other things, a reflection on its campaign style. It shows that canvassing by outsiders like Sadhvi Ritambara and Vishwa Hindu Parishad leaders who speak chaste Hindi is no way to communicate with backward class people in Gujarat.
The VHP, which had ensured Vaghela's defeat in the last Lok Sabha polls in Godhra, could not prove to be as effective in Radhanpur. Narendra Modi, the BJP strategist who played a role in the party's strong showing in Punjab, had also put in his might but to no avail in the Radhanpur poll. Vaghela had carefully chosen a constituency dominated by backward castes and with very little strength of Patels and Brahmins who are the BJP's natural supporters in Gujarat.
In turn, the BJP put up a backward class Chaudhary, because it is one of the major castes in Radhanpur. But Vaghela had the support of local Congress leaders like B K Gadhvi, Yogesh Thakore, Khodidan Jhula and Gobabhai Rabari, who played a major role in ensuring his victory.The Chief Minister also roped in Chaudhary Devi Lal to speak for him at a caste convention for the Chaudhary community. Vaghela also showed his mantle in manipulating caste support by organising conventions of other castes like kathis (kurmis) and Ahirs.
If anything, the by-election in this backward constituency of Banaskhanta district in Gujarat has ensured that the Vaghela factor will continue to dog the BJP in the state and the country as a whole.
The BJP has proved itself incapable of getting even with someone who broke the party and formed his own government. The damage caused by Vaghela to BJP's image of an united party six months back remains unhealed. What is more, the BJP campaign about misuse of government machinery and corruption by Vaghela has had little effect on the electorate.
