Vote for 112 Bihar, Jharkhand seats today

Prestige of Jharkhand chief minister, Pappu Yadav at stake in second phase of polling

As Bihar and Jharkhand vote in the second phase of the 2005 Assembly elections in 83 and 29 constituencies, respectively, today, fates of several top leaders of the ruling Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Ramvilas Paswan-led Lok Janashakti Party, the Janata Dal (united) and the Congress and Jharkhand Chief Minister Arjun Munda will be sealed.

In Tarapur (Munger), Health Minister Shakuni Choudhary, who periodically lashes out at absenteeism by doctors in government hospitals but has been unable to ban private practice, is fighting in a seat he has held since 1985.

In the Jamalpur constituency in the district, Labour Minister Upendra Verma is going to struggle to retain a seat he has held since 1980.

The area to watch is Purnea where Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav (currently in jail) is considered the strongest. He has resigned from the RJD after joining it a day before the by-election to Madhepura Lok Sabha seat, barely six months ago.

Yadav had won the seat thrice but lost in 2004 to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). For him, it is a matter of might and prestige to show his nominees can retain the seat even without Lalu Prasad's help or support.

This phase of the Bihar elections has its share of those who are contesting either from inside jail or are chargesheeted by one or other agency. Mahavir Prasad, former health minister, is contesting from Ghanshyampur in the Darbhanga district after being chargesheeted by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) in a leprosy appointments case.

In Manigachhi, former RJD Minister Lalit Yadav, who was involved in abducting a truck driver a few years ago and keeping him in custody at his residence in Patna, is contesting again.

In Katihar, former Minister Ram Prakash Mahto is contesting after having resigned from the ministership"" he was arrested after the Patna High Court directed the police to carry out all the arrest warrants pending against him.

However, there are others who are known Lalu opponents who are also contesting in this phase. Among them is Ramnath Thakur, son of former Bihar Chief Minister Karpuri Thakur, widely credited with carrying out fundamental social reforms in Bihar. Thakur is contesting from Samastipur and is expected to cost Lalu one seat.

It is possibly this that promoted Lalu to say at an election rally that "if Karpuri Babu had been alive, he would have strangled his son for aligning with the forces of feudalism". Thakur is contesting as a JD(U) candidate.

In the last Assembly, the CPI had just two seats, both from the Begusarai district. Both constituencies are going to the polls tomorrow.

Out of the 83 constituencies, in the last Assembly, 39 were with the RJD, the Samata Party-JD(U) had 24; the BJP and the BSP one each; CPI(ML) eight, the Congress three; CPI two and CPI(M) four.

In Jharkhand, 29 Assembly constituencies in the Ranchi, Kolhan and Khuti-Lohardaga districts will go to the polls today. The voter mood in the Kolhan region is being watched closely by the BJP. After loosing the general elections and the Maharashtra Assembly polls, Jharkhand presents the party a perfect opportunity to script a comeback.

If the BJP makes gains from where it saw itself before the first phase of polling, it will be attributed to three factors. First is the breaking up of the UPA, which has been responsible for votes being spilt in a number of Muslim-dominated areas like Ranchi and Jamshedpur.

The second is the rebellion of Stephen Marandi of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha. A large number of Christian votes are likely to be split due to the Marandi factor, giving the BJP an indirect advantage in constituencies where it is facing a multi-cornered fights. The third is the distribution of Kurmi votes.

Kurmis are likely to stay with the BJP due to the state government's announcement just before the polls that Kurmis would be notified as the Scheduled Tribe.

The notification has now been sent to the Centre for clearance, even as protests have broken out against the move.

The first phase was being called the RJD phase, with the party having 6 sitting MLAs from in the seats that went to the polls. The third phase is the Santhal Pargana phase where the JMM has made deep in roads.

The second phase can be called the BJP's acid test. If the party is able to keep up with the gains it made in the first phase as exit polls are predicting, then the prospect of a hung assembly in Jharkhand looks imminent.