Intensification of the monsoon in August, as reflected in six per cent excess rainfall during the month, and continuation of the wet spell in the first week of September has strengthened the optimism about a record kharif harvest. Besides, the weather office’s prophecy that the monsoon will not start withdrawing before mid-September has boosted the outlook for the next rabi as well.
The kharif sowing is more or less over in most of the country, barring some pockets in the east where soil moisture remained inadequate for seeding till the second half of August. Paddy growers in such tracts of Jharkhand, West Bengal and Bihar are now sowing alternative crops like urad, moong, nigerseed and fodder on the advice of agriculture experts and officials of the state agriculture departments.
Jute growers, particularly in West Bengal, are still facing paucity of water for retting (softening the jute sticks by immersing in water to facilitate fibre extraction). Low rainfall, moreover, has worsened the menace of arsenic contamination of groundwater in some parts of West Bengal, notably the districts of Nadia, North 24 Parganas and Murshidabad. The farmers have been advised to use groundwater for irrigation judiciously.
Overall, 96.64 million hectares had been brought under crop cover country-wide till September 3, clocking an increase of 8.27 million hectares over the last year’s corresponding position. The farmland under paddy, coarse cereals and pulses, together, has expanded by nearly 7 million hectares.
Standing crops in most parts are reportedly in excellent shape and no major outbreak of diseases and pests has been reported till now. Agricultural pundits are expecting the kharif grain output this year to not only exceed last year’s 103.8 million tonnes but also to surpass the record 118.1 million tonnes bagged in 2008-09.
The output of commercial crops, including oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane, too, is anticipated to register handsome gains. The agriculture ministry has put the likely production of cotton at all-time high of 35 million bales of 170 kg each, prompting the government to lift curbs on cotton exports from October, when the new cotton year begins.
Thanks to 16 per cent above-normal rainfall in the last week of August, the overall deficiency in the season’s cumulative monsoon rainfall till September 4 has shrunk to just 1 per cent, from 5 per cent at July-end and 16 per cent at June-end. The forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) projects 15 per cent excess rainfall in September, the last month of the four-month monsoon season (June to September). The rain-starved tract in the north-east is also projected to receive good rainfall till at least September 10. The cumulative seasonal rainfall in the eastern region as a whole, however, may remain in the deficient domain, according to IMD.
A notable feature of this year’s monsoon is that while the traditional high rainfall region in the east and north-east has remained rain deficient (21 per cent below normal till September 3), the usually arid tracts, such as western Rajasthan, Leh and Ladakh in Jammu and Kashmir, Vidarbha, Marathwada, Saurashtra and Kutch, have got excess rainfall (more than 20 per cent above normal). This has facilitated extensive sowing of coarse cereals, pulses and cotton in these tracts. High ruling prices of these commodities has also encouraged the farmers to go for these crops.
The good and sustained waterfall since the last week of July, moreover, has refilled most of the reservoirs which were depleted substantially due to last year’s drought. According to the Central Water Commission, total water stock in the 81 major reservoirs was 90.777 million cubic metres (BCM) on September 1. This level is nearly 34 per cent above the last year’s corresponding level and 2 per cent above the long period average.
The water stock was a worrisome 35 per cent below normal till the third week of July, prior to the strengthening of the monsoon. Many dams, including Bhakra, one of the biggest ones, have opened their flood gates. However, the hydrological situation is still precarious in the dams located in the east, especially in West Bengal, where the water holding in the dams is 73 per cent below normal.
In terms of river basins, the overall water stock is better-than-normal or normal in most basins, except those of Ganga, Mahi and Mahanadi.
