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The country’s wheat production in 2014-15 is expected to be around 5.07 million tonnes less than last year's, the lowest in four years, due to widespread and unseasonal rain and hail in several parts of North India from late February.
According to the third advance estimate, issued on Wednesday, overall foodgrain production in the rabi season, which includes rice and pulses, seems to have been impacted by this. It is now estimated at 9.83 million tonnes less than last year’s, at 126.52 mt.
However, economists said food inflation, except in chana (chikpea), might not rise due to lower production but the government will have to be alert, augmenting supply from its stocks and importing when needed.
Combined foodgrain output from the current rabi and previous kharif seasons is now expected to be 251.12 mt, about 14 mt lower than in 2013-14.
This production estimate is almost six mt lower than in the second advance estimate, issued in February.
A less than normal southwest monsoon in 2014 also contributed to this. India had received 12 per cent less rain than the average last year in that season.
“Production of kharif crops in 2014-15 suffered due to bad monsoon, while unseasonal rain and hail during February and March had significant impact on production of rabi crops. As a result, production of most crops declined,” went the official statement. The crop season runs from July to June.
In rabi, the data says pulses production is expected to fall by 10.4 per cent as compared to 2013-14, to 11.87 mt. Oilseeds, mainly mustard, is projected to fall by 12.8 per cent to 8.83 mt.
“I don’t think this would have an impact on food inflation, as global prices are weak, while domestic food stocks are good. However, a lot will also depend on government policies on offloading of grain stocks and imports,” D K Joshi, chief economist, CRISIL, told Business Standard.
He said the impact of a poor kharif and rabi output on agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015-16 would depend on how the southwest monsoon behaved.
Wheat and rice stocks with the government are 51.17 mt, as against a buffer norm of 21 mt.
Widespread rain and hail hit the country from late February, which impacted almost 30 per cent of the total rabi sowing of 60 million hectares. The largest damage was in wheat.
Food inflation, in terms of the consumer price index, fell to 5.11 per cent in April against 6.14 per cent in March and 9.21 per cent in April 2014.
The data also says rice production is estimated to have fallen to 102.54 mt in 2014-15 against the record output of 106.65 mt the previous year. Output of coarse cereals at 40.42 mt is down by 2.87 mt the previous year.
Minister of state for agriculture, Sanjeev Balyan, said an elaborate contingency plan was ready to minimise the impact of low rain in the coming monsoon season. Last month, India Meteorological Department had said the southwest monsoon was likely to be below normal, at 93 per cent of the long period average, a consecutive year of below-average showers.
Agriculture contributes 15 per cent to GDP but but employs about 60 per cent of the population. About 40 per cent of the cultivable area is under irrigation.
