Will 'Behanji' change UP's economic landscape?

In the heart of Lucknow's Hazratganj lies the old Carlton Hotel, now bought over by the Sahara group and converted into a mall named, what else, Saharaganj.

But as far as the big ticket investments in the city or even the state of Uttar Pradesh through those industrialists perceived to be close to Mulayam Singh Yadav are concerned, that is pretty much it.

Despite all the photo-ops and posturing, out of the nearly Rs 1 lakh crore investment promised to the state by private entrepreneurs, only Rs 26,000 crore has materialised on the ground, most of it in the already developed sugar sector.

According to Dr A K Singh, director of the Giri Institute of Development Studies, the much hyped "friends of Amar Singh" have not had much of an impact on the state.

"This is mainly a small and medium entrepreneur state, and these big ticket investments, promised during the hey days of the Uttar Pradesh Development Council, did not materialise," he said.

One of the biggest projects in the state was the Anil Ambani-led group's gas-based power plant in Dadri, which got embroiled in political controversy.

"Even then, out of the Rs 10,000 crore which he planned to invest, Rs 3,000 crore was underwritten by the government as tax write-offs and other sops," he said.

"The Bajajs' plan to buy sugar co-operatives also came a cropper and Adi Godrej must have visited only once during the entire four-year term of Yadav," he said. So who really needs to go in fear of Mayawati?

According to BSP spokesperson Sudhir Goel, economics and getting after businessmen is not 'Behanji's' style. What of the UPDC? The reply comes: "Why ask us, ask Amar Singh."

According to her partymen, Mayawati intends to leave the businessmen strictly alone. It is rumoured that even the Sahara group has bought peace with the future chief minister.

"There has been a continuity as far as economic policy is concerned, whether it is the SP or BSP," says Singh. "The BSP has been elected due to its promise of improving the law and order situation, that has to be good for business," says Goel.

"Uttar Pradesh has turned into a revenue surplus state from a large revenue deficit one in the last four years, due to a combination of factors including better collection of state tax revenue, rise in prices of petroleum products and the huge increase in Plan size from Rs 5,000-6,000 crore to Rs 20,000 this year. Clearly, business and investment has little to do with this," says a senior bureaucrat in the development department.

The World Bank too meanwhile has been pumping money into the state through three big projects worth Rs 600-700 crore each. These are the UP diversified agriculture project, the sodic land reclamation project and a water restructuring project.

"The state will attract attention, but unless the power scenario and the law and order situation improve, Mayawati is as good or as bad as the others who came before her," says Singh.