With stakes high, UP politics takes a breather

It took four meetings of the UP Cabinet to discuss the implications of the withdrawal of support by the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD).

After carefully planning the way the numbers would work for his government, Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav timed a special session of the UP Assembly today. But because the governor's address was punctuated by disturbances and all parties agreed, the session was adjourned. It will now resume on January 24.

Because of high stakes, all parties are trying to utilise the extra week to strengthen themselves. For the first time in months, a tired Congress has a spring in its step.

Although the mere exit of Ajit Singh-led RLD is not enough to bring the Samajwadi Party government down, the psychological boost that the Congress has got by the move is undeniable.

This morning, both parties met Governor TV Rajeshwar to demand Yadav's resignation. A mysterious toothache afflicted two RLD MLAs in the morning and they were reluctant to add their voice to the demand. But colleagues quickly grasped the reason for the toothache and assured the MLAs that their cure would be taken care of.

The Opposition is afraid that the Yadav government will carry out the threat voiced by its minister Naresh Aggarwal yesterday. Aggarwal had said that several parties would "shed some weight in the next few days."

Although the Congress is still not in a position to bring the government down, it is clear that it is feeling a little more confident now. "Earlier I used to call them for tea and they would never come, even to discuss legitimate business of the House" said Congress Chief Whip and MLA Louise Khurshid, grinning as she joked and chatted with the RLD MLAs. "But now it is different," retorted an RLD MLA.

Yadav's government has numbers on its side. But exactly how many is the question that even most in the Samajwadi Party don't know. The Congress alleges that Yadav has done private deals with MLAs in all Opposition parties.

The 16 Independent MLAs, who have so many criminal cases against them that they have a vested interest in ensuring that the Yadav government continues, form a bloc of support.

Also, the jury is still out on the status of the 33 MLAs who had defected from the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to SP - the Supreme Court is hearing the case but whether it will deliver a judgment before January 24 is still an open question. If these two factors go against Yadav, his government will lose majority.

But there is a feeling now that the SP is no longer unassailable and this is worrying the government. Over the next one week, what will happen in Lucknow is political psychological warfare of the most sophisticated kind.