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Ahead of release of gross domestic product (GDP) data on Friday, financial research firm Zyfin today estimated economic growth at 5.5% for the third quarter of 2013-14.
"ZyFin estimated that GDP grew by 5.5% in Q3 of 2013-14, the highest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2011," the research firm said in a statement here.
If its estimation comes out to be true, it would be the first quarter which would see a growth rate of over 5% after four consecutive quarters of sub-5% expansion.
GDP is officially projected to grow 4.9% in 2013-14. In the first half, the economy rose 4.6%. As such, the economy is expected to grow over 5% in the second half. However, even the government does not expect the economy to grow as high as 5.5% in the third quarter.
Zyfin's estimation for the third quarter is based on its projections for GDP growth at 5.7% in December, higher than 5.4% in November. The December GDP growth was highest since December, 2011.
"ZyFin believes that the economy has bottomed out and growth rates would continue to improve driven by improving private consumption and expanding industrial activity,"" the research firm said.
Zyfin said this uptick is driven by strengthening services sector and moderation in inflation.
It estimated inflation, based on GDP deflator, at 7.3% in December against 7.4% in November.
The Central Statistics Office is scheduled to announce its estimate for third quarter GDP growth on February 28. GDP grew 4.8% in the second quarter of the current financial year.
Zyfin's estimates are bit different from Moody's Analytics projections given yesterday. The research firm of Moody's group estimated the economy to grow by 4.8% in the third quarter of 2013-14, the same as in the second quarter.
Debopam Chaudhuri, Vice-President Research, ZyFin, said,“GDP growth should continue to recover in the following months, with private spending, which accounts for over 50% of India’s GDP, expected to rise."
