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1) It's a scenario the stock markets have been hoping for all along...
An average of the 7 sets of exit polls that were released yesterday amid frantic ponderings in TV studios have given the NDA an average of 283 seats leaving Congress+ (at a median average of 105) virtually decimated. There is an 80-90 seat difference between the lowest tally of 249 for NDA as envisaged by Times Now - ORG and 340 (plus or minus 11) forecast by News 24 - Chanakya, but most other surveys fall somewhere in the middle of this range at 270-280 seats for BJP+.
2) An unmistakable Modi wave has swept the North, Central and Western parts of India...
The BJP according to CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti is predicted to take between 45 to 53 seats in the make or break state of Uttar Pradesh where Narendra Modi's campaign reached its crescendo in the last few days. The saffron party will sweep neighboring Bihar as well with as many as 21 to 27 seats, while Madhya Pradesh will provide the added thrust to propel Modi to 7 RCR with the BJP improving its tally to 24-28 from 16 in 2009.
In all these states Congress has been reduced to low single digits, even though their alliance with a reinvigorated RJD in Bihar could take up the Congress+ tally in the state to 11-15 according to CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti.
3) But where does this leave Modi's bête noir Nitish Kumar? In the dumps, to put it bluntly.
The BJP seems to have snatched the carpet from under its former ally JDU's feet leaving it with merely 2-4 seats as compared to 20 in 2009. With the upper caste, lower OBC and Dalit vote consolidating in favor of the BJP and the Muslim-Yadav combine turning to Lalu, Nitish seems to have fallen off between two stools.
In Maharashtra meanwhile, from 25 in 2009 to 11-15 according to both CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti and India Today - Cicero, the Congress has halved its tally as an anti-incumbency sets in. Also a series of scams and an ongoing agrarian crisis have pushed the BJP-Shiv Sena towards 27-35 according to India Today - Cicero or 33-37 according to CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti. That's between 7 to 15 seats more than its tally of 20 in 2009.
4) MNS meanwhile gets a grand total of zero according to most polls and NCP too has been hit hard. Raj Thackeray and Sharad Pawar will be worried men given that the state goes to assembly polls in October.
In neighboring Gujarat, Modi's home state, it is a clean sweep for the BJP which is slated to bag anywhere between 21 to 25 of the 26 seats. It's a knock out performance in Rajasthan as well where the Congress will be left with barely 1-3 seats according to CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti, or 2 seats according to Times Now - ORG.
5) Towards the south of the Vindhyas however, there is no Modi wave.
TRS will win 10 seats, Congress 4 seats and BJP 3 seats in Telangana and the BJP-TDP combine and YSRC battle it out head to head with 11-15 seats in Seemandhra if CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti is to be believed.
Jayalalitha is expected to sweep Tamil Nadu with 22 to 28 seats leaving the BJP with only 4-6, while a Congress led UDF will retain Kerala with a lower tally of 11-14 as opposed to 16 in 2009.
Contrary to expectations however, the BJP seems to be doing pretty well in Karnataka despite the debacle it faced in the assembly polls. CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti gives the party 10-14 while Times Now - ORG gives it 18.
6) In the east of the country, Mamta's dominion will hold with TMC in all likelihood becoming the third largest party post the LS polls with between 20 to 31 seats according to various estimates. TMC's vote share will jump 7% to 38%.
Biju Patnaik's BJD with 12-16 seats will also hold the fort in the middle of a Modi wave while there are all indications that the Left will not be wiped out in West Bengal, winning between 7 and 15 seats according to various predictions.
7) Overall though, the exit polls show a mixed bag performance by the regional satraps.
Nitish, Maya and Mulayam are clearly left gasping for breath, even as Jaya, Mamta and Biju Patnaik are seemingly impervious to the Modi wave.
The joker in the pack was Arvind Kejriwal led Aam Aadmi Party which if exit polls are to be believed has failed to live up to the hype generated post the Delhi assembly polls.
8) Of the 434 seats it contested AAP is slated to win only between 3-7 of which 1-5 could come from Punjab according to various estimates, 1 from Maharashtra according to ABP News - Neilsen and 0-2 from the national capital Delhi according to CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti.
AAP may spring a surprise in Punjab clearly, but with no victory expected to be notched up in Uttar Pradesh, Arvind Kejriwal (who had claimed his young party will win a 100 seats), is likely to lose the battle to Narendra Modi in Varanasi.
Will AAP soon fade into irrelevance then? And did walking out of Delhi after 49 days cost the party heavy?
As Kejriwal & co brood over that, the final judgment if these exit polls are accurate seems to be this -
9) Ab ki baar, Modi sarkaar will ring true - In an era of coalitions, it seems there is no stopping Modi's march to 7 RCR with the BJP led NDA expected to get a clear majority according to all but one (Times Now - ORG) exit poll. Naysayers will retreat, the 160 club will have no choice but to contend with a new party structure and niggling allies may not have to be wooed after all.
The UPA meanwhile is expected to clock in its worst ever performance with one poll even giving Congress+ a mere 70 seats while the average of surveys showing India's GOP barely inching past the 100 mark. With a resurgent BJP, an all-round battering across states and regional parties continuing to retain their influence the Congress has been left in a state of utter disarray and will need tremendous effort under Rahul Gandhi's leadership to bring itself out of the morass.
10) To finish though with a takeaway from history, exit polls in India are infamous for being off beam. They've overestimated the BJP's performance not once, not twice but in three consecutive elections (1999, 2004, 2009). That should leave us with enough circumspection about these numbers as we countdown to May 16th.
