)
It seems that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has finally realised the need to reach out to India’s four southern states in order to accomplish Mission 272+. The BJP’s prime ministerial nominee, Narendra Modi, has been cautiously treading the middle path, trying to balance his speeches in different constituencies. The south is essentially dominated by regional parties, and even the smaller of these are not easy for the BJP to dislodge in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.
The other major area of concern is whether a personalised poll campaign can work in India where people have long voted according to religion, caste and region. Barring Karnataka, the south has been uncharted territory for the saffron party. Undoubtedly, Modi is attracting crowds in elections rallies, but how well the party can perform in the region remains a matter of doubt. Of Tamil Nadu’s 39 Lok Sabha seats, Modi cannot expect a tally worth talking about.
“There is no Narendra Modi wave in Tamil Nadu. However, some sections of the Tamil population, especially in Kanyakumari, Coimbatore and Trichy do have confidence in Modi's leadership qualities to save the nation from crises. At this juncture, it is hard to predict whether Modi's charisma will be translated into seats in the state,” observes M Kennedy Stephenson Vaseekaran, associate professor at University of Madras.
“The political parties which aligned with the BJP have a shallow vote bank in the state. Modi will not be a factor, but if the local BJP leaders actively take part in campaigning then there would a possibility of winning a few seats in some regions,” said Vaseekaran.
The BJP's vote share has stagnated at a little over 2% in recent Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. Even the parties it is wooing are hardly a force by themselves. The BJP’s Tamil Nadu strategy hinges on three hopes: one, Modi’s charisma will bring in more votes than ever before; two, the party will gain a slice of the DMK’s votes; and third, getting its alliances in place and formally announce the seat shares.
“Awareness about Narendra Modi is evident only in certain pockets, essentially in urban areas. The major hurdle for the party is that it failed to sew up an alliance with one of the major Dravidian parties — DMK and AIADMK. Also, the present state leadership is not so strong and the party failed to expand its base in rural areas,” said a Chennai-based scholar, requesting anonymity.
“Nearly half the voters in Tamil Nadu are sympathizers of Dravidian parties or movement. While the other half is the constituency for BJP, the party and its local leaders never established direct contact with people and reached out to specific groups,” said Vaseekaran.
The state BJP is confident that the alliance and the Modi factor would make it the main challenger to the ruling AIADMK, pushing the DMK to third spot. Vijayakanth’s party has also a wider influence thanks to the support of the most-backward Vanniyars.
M Karunanidhi’s estranged son M K Alagiri has welcomed the prospects of Modi becoming the country's prime minister. The DMK chief's younger son M K Stalin is less interested in the Lok Sabha polls while being fixated on becoming the next Chief Minister. Therefore, in places where the DMK is weak, its supporters will transfer their votes to the BJP coalition to checkmate Jayalalithaa — so hopes the saffron party.
“The BJP's ability of winning over new allies is doubtful as the party’s focus on Modi as prime ministerial candidate is itself is problematic. It’s not because Modi's stature is not up to the mark. People want to see some commitment from local leadership who are familiar with them. In the past the party failed to bring in second-rung leaders at the forefront, argues Vaseekaran.
Modi's outreach to Tamil population may not convert into too many votes but it helps the image makeover of the Gujarat Chief Minister whose controversial record is emerging as the central theme of the general elections.
