The long wait for the election results seems to be too tough for Keralites, like the searing summer heat. Both the electorates and the political parties have to wait till next month to know the winners when they are announced on May 16.
Yet, discussions and comments on the outcome are actively progressing in the media. Along with this, wordly duel between political leaders is also live.
A section of the local media has opined the LDF is likely to get 12-14 seats. Before the elections, through various poll surveys, they said the UDF would get 15-17 seats. Now, most projections are in favour of LDF.
A major factor for this is the shift in large chunk of electorates in favour of LDF and the abstaining of UDF voters from the polls. This was obvious in the central districts of the state. In the Thodupuzha Assembly segment in Idukki LS, turnout was 65 per cent while in the other six Assembly segments polling was above 70 per cent.
According to sources, roughly 70,000 voters in Thodupuzha abstained from voting. Incidentally, PJ Joseph, minister for Water Resources in the Oommen Chandy cabinet, represents Thodupuzha.
The Kerala Congress had bargained strongly for the Idukki seat but the leadership was reluctant.
If the UDF candidate Dean Kuriakose misses Idukki, the abstaining will have more political mileage. Likewise, there is an open fight between PC George, chief whip of the government, and Anto Antony, Congress candidate in Pathanamthitta Lok Sabha constituency. Anto alleged PC George had 'sabotaged' the campaign.
The district Congress committee (DCC) of Pathanamthitta has already suspended a former DCC member for his anti-party stand in the election. Also, Alappuzha DCC has sought disciplinary action against AICC secretary Shanimol Usman against her 'passive' approach in the election campaign in Alappuzha constituency.
Unlike earlier elections, this time it is hard to predict the results, as the under currents were quite strong across all the constituencies. Religious and caste-based political moves are also very crucial this time and the Modi factor might play an important role in consolidating Hindu votes.
In the UDF, Congress leaders like Oommen Chandy have rested hope on the consolidation of Muslim and Christian votes. In Muslim dominated areas, their trump card was the Modi factor. Even Defence Minister AK Antony had said it would be disastrous for India if Modi became Prime Minister, clearly targeting the minorities, especially the Muslim votes. If the UDF gets minorities support, it will get a clear advantage in Kerala.
However, it is very tough to predict the outcome. Going by the past trend, the state always goes against the national political mindset. In the 1976 elections when the Congress had a humiliating defeat at the national level, Kerala was a stronghold for them as the UDF won all the 20 seats. If history repeats, the Congress will get majority seats in Kerala.
Meanwhile, the BJP is betting big on the Thiruvananthapuram seat where veteran leader O Rajagopal is in the fray.
The outcome of Kerala will determine the future of the Oommen Chandy ministry and the UDF.
If the UDF faces defeat, the ministry will collapse and the very existence of UDF will be under threat. Infighting has already started in the UDF camp.
