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The less than optimal performance by the YS Rajashekhar Reddy Congress (YSRC) in both the Assembly and Lok Sabha elections will raise several questions about the political and legal future of Jaganmohan Reddy now.
Jaganmohan Reddy’s party is leading in 43 assembly constituencies and has won 26. In the 175-member assembly, this is not enough for Reddy for form a government. In the Lok Sabha seats too, out of 25, YSR Congress has won just won but is leading in six.
Given the number of legal cases that Reddy is mired in, if the Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desam Party (TDP) puts its mind to it, it can create a lot of problems for Jaganmohan Reddy and his family.
It is quite clear that one reason for Reddy’s poor performance is the last minute electoral tie-up between the TDP and the BJP. This was a major force multiplier for TDP, as it had been in the past when Naidu allied with the Atal Behari Vajpayee led BJP.
Although YSR Congress will not be in the government, it could have a substantial say in the Assembly as the main opposition as Seemandhra gets down to creating the infrastructure for a new state.
In Delhi, YSR Congress will have little or no role: an alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party might have been possible if the BJP had been vulnerable and in need of support. That possibility is ruled out now. So there is very little room left for power arbitrage by Jaganmohan Reddy.
What could happen however, is attempts by the TDP to break away sections of YSR Congress so that its power is whittled away. This is a long process and could take time.
The party is unlikely to get any help or cooperation from the Congress with which its estrangement is too deep to be repaired. All Jaganmohan Reddy expected, when he met Congress President Sonia Gandhi after his father died, was that he would be made Chief Minister. Not only did the Congress refuse to acede to this request but also turned him and the family away. That is not a snub Reddy will forget easily.
In Seemandhra the chances are that Chandrababu Naidu will become Chief Minister. If as CM he digs out more evidence against Reddy and KVP Ramchandra Rao, erstwhile colleague of Jagan Reddy’s father, it will take a lot of resultion, grit and determination for the party to survive.
