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Lalu Prasad is emerging one of the most interesting and intriguing characters in Indian politics. Having been reduced to four MPs in 2009, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) got battered further, getting only 22 MLAs in the 243-member Assembly in 2010. However, the political divorce between the Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party has given Lalu Prasad enough elbow room to script a return from political wilderness. Despite his growing marginalisation in national politics, Lalu Prasad has shown remarkable political astuteness in staying alive in Bihar politics. Will he hit the jackpot in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls?
For 20 years, Bihar’s politics has been essentially bipolar, with Lalu Prasad representing one end, and forces opposed to him constituting the other end of the axis. At this stage, it seems that parties have taken a back seat and the electoral battle has boiled down to a triangular fight between three personalities — Nitish Kumar, Lalu Prasad and Narendra Modi. But spoiling the much-vaunted poll arithmetic of the JD (U) as well as the BJP is a resurgent RJD boss with the Yadavs once again rallying around him, both angry and sympathetic about his imprisonment, loss of MP status and disqualification from contesting.
“Caste affiliations have always dominated the political landscape of Bihar. The caste rhetoric has once again out in the open in the ongoing Lok Sabha polls, primarily owing to the split in the BJP-JD (U) alliance. What is clear that caste politics, which became synonymous with Bihar and the RJD long ago, has made a comeback in the 2104 polls. There is no denying the fact that Biharis cannot rise above the caste politics in the state,” said Gauri Shankar Rajhans, a well-known columnist and former member of the Lok Sabha.
Imaging: Ajay Mohanty
“Every party is working on caste calculations in the state. Bihar is a deeply traditional society and it is very difficult to bring people out of their caste mindset. It was Nitish Kumar who brought the state back on track and worked hard for its overall development, but he failed to break the caste barriers in the state. Caste realities, instead of economic factors, continue to influence voters in the state. Lalu Prasad’s biggest achievement has been the empowerment of Yadavs and their climb up the social ladder. At the same time, Lalu Prasad is still a hero to many poor and backward castes as his rise from humble origins to chief minister was seen to give millions a voice,” observes Sunanda Banerjee, professor of political science at University of Patna.
The BJP’s biggest social engineering came when Lok Janshakti Party chief Ram Vilas Paswan crossed over to the NDA. Paswans constitute 6% of voters. The entry of Rashtriya Lok Samata Party chief Upendra Kushwaha, too, is aimed at wooing a particular caste (read Koeri). The entry of Ram Kripal Yadav was aimed at giving the party a Yadav face. Narendra Modi has displayed his backward caste origin, eyeing the OBCs who constitute approximately 60% of the state’s voters. A section of BJP leaders is hopeful that the 'Modi wave' might cut across the complicated layers of the state’s caste-based social order seeing Modi through finally. In 2009, Lalu Prasad managed to get over 19% of the votes against the JD(U)’s 22% and BJP’s 16%. His vote share came primarily from his traditional base — 14% Yadavs and 16% Muslims, besides a section of the upper caste Rajputs.
“It is not late recovery for the RJD in Bihar. It was in the reckoning from the very beginning since the Lok Sabha elections were announced and Narendra Modi became BJP’s prime ministerial candidate. In the backdrop of national polarisation between the BJP and Congress, any political party which got latched on to either the Congress or the BJP got revived. For instance, the LJP got revived because it attached itself to the BJP. In the same way the RJD got revived as it got latched on to the Congress. As there is some sort of bipolar thing which appeared at the national level that is in the reckoning in the context of Bihar too,” argues Shaibal Gupta, secretary of the Patna-based Asian Development Research Institute.
The saffron party’s game of polarisation gave a fresh lease of life to Lalu Prasad. On the ground, Muslims, fearful of polarisation in favour of Modi, are unifying behind Lalu Prasad. The main loser, ironically, may be Nitish Kumar, who broke off his alliance with the BJP over Modi in his bid to woo the 16% Muslim voters. From 2005 onwards, Nitish has been successful in making inroads into Lalu Prasad’s Muslim votes. At present, the Muslims feel the RJD leader’s secular credentials are more reliable. Of late, during his election rallies, Lalu Prasad stressed that he, as Bihar CM, had got Lal Krishna Advani arrested when he was on his rath yatra to Ayodhya.
“It seems that Lalu Prasad may pull off a big surprise with his tried-and-tested Muslim-Yadav formula in Bihar this time. The RJD's famed Muslim-Yadav combination is a vital electoral group that constituted Lalu-Rabri regime’s core strength for 15 long years through 1990s till 2005. Undoubtedly, the Nitish Kumar government did a good job as far as law and order and the state’s economic growth are concerned. However, after the JD(U)-BJP split, Nitish Kumar has been isolated and finds himself a corner in the state’s political arena," said Rajhans.
Will the Muslim bloc voting in favour of the RJD alienate large parts of the much bigger Hindu constituency? If the minority community votes as one bloc, it can tip the scales either way. Thus, generally speaking, can Lalu Prasad claim to have stopped the Narendra Modi juggernaut in Bihar? Come May 16, the picture will be clear.
