In Mithilanchal, its a direct contest between the RJD and the BJP

Amidst the small town of Darbhanga, stands the imposing Lalit Narayan Mithila University better known as the Darbhanga university, housed in the majestic palace of Raj Darbhanga. Sajid Hussain a 26 year old student PG student of Political Science and also a university level cricket player is angry with the sitting MP, cricketer turned politician Kirti Azad of the BJP. “We students had lots of hope with a sportsperson like Kirti Azad and hoped he would develop the facilities here but nothing came of it.” His friend from the adjoining CM Arts College Tufail Hashmi describes how most of his seniors have left for jobs elsewhere with some even heading for the Gulf and Saudi Arabia.

Ascribing the laidback attitude here to the Maithili way of life, “Paan khaiyye, aur mauj kijiye” (Have paan and just enjoy yourself ), the students say that local issues seldom figure in the polls and this Maithili Brahmin stronghold always witnesses a straight contest between the dominant Brahmins (22%) and the Muslims (18%). The RJD candidate MA Fatmi, former MoS Education in the UPA government and four time MP has their support. 
 

For a constituency that used to be a Congress stronghold in the past, the electoral contest here is being perceived as a UPA ( RJD and Congress backed MA Fatmi) versus Narendra Modi led BJP fight; with the JD(U) candidate Sanjay Jha (a close associate of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar) a Maithili Brahmin (like Azad) regarded as a ‘spoiler’ . 
 

As Arun Jha, a staffer at this upper caste dominant university (with virtually every professor name plate displaying a Mishra , Jha or Chaudhary) explains, “The Maithili Brahmin usually votes ‘en bloc’, so it will be interesting to see what happens with two Maithili Brahmins Kirti Azad and Sanjay Jha in the fray.” Some fear that RJD’s Fatmi, could emerge the winner in this melee. 

Mirzapur chowk and Tower chowk in the heart of the town are bustling market areas, with every second establishment owned by a Maithili Brahmin. Prabhunath Jha concedes that BJP’s Kirti Azad has not worked for the constituency at all but “Modi ji ke naam pe logon ka jhukaav hai. (People are drawn towards Modi ji) and “’Change’ hona chahiye” (There must be change) he asserts. 
 

“Sanjay Jha is certainly the most capable candidate of the three, but I can’t waste my vote,” says 67 year old Marwari businessman Mahavir Prasad Saraf. Convinced that a Narendra Modi led BJP will usher in “vikaas” like he did in Gujarat, “where administration is very strong, people are literate and the state is prosperous,” Saraf believes firmly in the Gujarat model of development and insists that people should root for Modi and therefore the BJP.  
 

In contrast to this affluent commercial hub, is the Urdu Bazaar area with its Muslim residents living in abject poverty. At the Neem chowk, a garbage dump has replaced the neem tree, after which the ‘chowk’ was named; Dr. Usmani, a homeopathic doctor has been practicing in this locality for decades. Dr. Usmani asks, “People vote in groups, so why not me,” thereby rationalizing why he would support MA Fatmi and not the JD(U) despite believing that the latter has a better candidate. 
 

The ‘Modi factor’ this time has certainly caused the Muslim minority community to “back someone of their own”, MA Fatmi. So much so that developments in faraway Kishanganj, are resonating here in Darbhanga. Shafaqat Imam Geelani, passionately talks of how “Akhtar Ul Imam ‘saheb’ of the JD(U) in Kishanganj has withdrawn from the race in favour of the Congress candidate just in order to stop the advent of Narendra Modi.” The “message” is clear, he asserts, “Muslims cannot stop him (Modi) alone, they have to unite.” 
 

Fatmi, say political observers would stand to benefit from not just the Muslim vote rallying behind him but the sizeable Yadav vote in the region, with Yadavs accounting for 16% of the vote bank. 
 

Last time in 2009, the BJP had benefited from its alliance partner JD(U)’s support base; with some Muslims voting for Kirti Azad.  
 

For a region that figures among the leading areas in the state in terms of migration, with few employment options and its once flourishing sugar mills shut down and as one old timer testifies, “In every corner of the country, you will find someone from Darbhanga”  - the ‘Modi factor' holds sway.    
 

According to Ehsaan Ansari a tailor who is a Pasmanda Muslim, “Modi ji bhashaan mein jo bhi kahen, voh Musalmaano ke ‘like’ nahi karte.” (Whatever Modi might say in his speeches, he does not seem to like Muslims). 

This north Bihar constituency will be keenly watched to see whether the famed Muslim -Yadav combination holds sway reaping dividends for the Congress – RJD or the ‘Modi factor’ brushes off all competition including avoiding a split in the Maithili Brahmin votes which the JD(U) was banking on.