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Monday's exit polls may have added an extra crease on Mamata Banerjee's forehead, for more reasons than one.
One, the number of seats that TMC is likely to bag is way below Banerjee's expectations. After all, she was nurturing hopes of becoming the Prime Minister by aligning with other regional parties, loosely dubbed as the Third Front. Second, the rise of BJP, led by Narendra Modi, is far more worrying than a doddering Left Front steered by some tired comrades.Exit polls have pegged the number of seats for TMC at 20-31. It's the same polls that have predicted a 12-16 vote share for BJP against six per cent in the 2009 polls. Numbers indicate that Banerjee's popularity is clearly waning. Going by assembly elections of 2011, TMC should have got 34 seats.The exit polls also suggest that Modi may not need a troublesome ally like Banerjee. Banerjee's official position is that TMC would not have any truck with Modi, that doesn't exactly rule out the BJP.
But Banerjee would want to be a part of the new government, especially with the spectre of Saradha coming back to haunt her. The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), which will be probing the Rs 10,000 crore financial scam has said that it will file an FIR over the next fortnight.So far, some intellectuals and MPs linked to the TMC have been quizzed by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and the Serious Fraud Investigation Office. Surely, not being part of the Centre is a cause for worry at this moment.The concern is, of course, BJP making inroads in the state. But what is the reason behind BJP's rise in Bengal? Political observers and bureaucrats are unanimous on this. It's Banerjee's populism.
The Minority Affairs and Madrasa Education got a 102 per cent higher allocation in the last budget over the previous. From Haj House, to minority Bhavans, it's a long list of sops for the 28 per cent Muslim vote bank in Bengal. But the one that tops the charts is the honorarium for imams and muezzins announced in 2012, which was struck down by the Calcutta High Court.
"Her identity politics has made space for the BJP in Bengal," an industrialist pointed out. It's evident that BJP had got a whiff of its fair chances in Bengal from Modi's intense campaigning in the state. Over the past month, Modi has addressed 11 rallies. Surely, the days ahead will also see more of Modi, especially since the Kolkata Municipal Corporation (KMC) elections is next year. Will it mark the beginning of the end of the road for Banerjee? It's still early days.
