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Polling for the 20 Lok Sabha constituencies in Kerala will take place on Thursday from 7 am onwards. Roughly 24.3-million voters are expected to exercise their democratic right through 21,424 polling stations.
The number of polling stations are higher by 948 this time than that in the 2009 elections.
Around 269 candidates are in the fray with a maximum of 20 in Thiruvananthapuram, where Shashi Tharoor is contesting for the second term as Congress candidate.
The Mavelikkara constituency has the minimum number of candidates - nine. Among the candidates, 27 are women with each major political party fielding two each. The state has around 2.5-million new voters, which is a critical factor in the outcome of the election.
Women voters are in majority in Kerala numbering 12.5-million while the male voters are roughly 11.7-million.
Wile the United Democratic Front (UDF) hopes to win 15-17 seats, and the Left Democratic Front (LDF) expects victory in 12-16 seats. According to independent observers, it is very hard to predict the outcome in Kerala as tough fight is expected between both the Fronts.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) also expects to open its account either from Kasargod or from Thiruvananthapuram.
The BJP is expected to grab more votes due to various factors and is a critical factor this time in all the constituencies. This is very crucial in Lok Sabha segments like Ernakulam, Palakkad, Thiruvananthapuram and Kannur.
The presence of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) candidates is also very important as votes cast in favour of them would decide which of the front emerges as the winner.
The 2.5-million first time voters are also important as there is no clear clue about their voting pattern. A section of the young voters said they would opt for ‘NOTA’ as they had no confidence in the mainstream political fronts. Most of them wanted a stable and strong government at the Centre. They opined the biggest drawback of the UPA-II was corruption.
In Kerala, a 1-2 per cent voter swing towards the UDF or the LDF determines the victory. Both the Fronts manage votes in the range of 45-47 per cent of the total votes polled.
This time, several factors might contribute to the swing, including corruption, price rise, Kasturirangan Committee report on Western Ghats, solar power scam and land grab cases. Hence, the outcome has turned pretty unpredictable this time as there is no political wave in favour of a single Front.
In the Ernakulam constituency, in the first round of campaign, Congress candidate KV Thomas had a clear advantage. But there was a paradigm shift in this towards the end of the final rounds of the campaign. Now, Thomas has only a narrow edge against LDF candidate Christy Fernandez.
Likewise in Thiruvananthapuram, Shashi Tharoor is facing a very tough fight from Bennet Abraham of CPI. This is the case in almost all constituencies.
The Election Commission has made elaborate arrangements. Around 40,000 police personnel have been deployed at polling stations. Public departments like excise, forests and ex-service men have been engaged for maintaining the law and order.
The polling hours have been extended by one hour to 6 pm.
