)
As the longest election in India's history draws to a close Monday evening with voting finishing in all 543 constituencies, the country braces up for an all important week ahead, packed with several data points and events to keep track of. There is palpable excitement in the equity markets which have sustained their Friday momentum in anticipation of a big mandate for Narendra Modi on May 16th. Before the D-day though, here are the other important events to also keep an eye on this week -
5. CPI & WPI
Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data is expected post market close today with Bloomberg predicting CPI to come in at 8.5% for April against 8.31% in March due to higher food and fuel prices. Wholesale Price Inflation (WPI) will follow on Wednesday and is expected to remain unchanged at 5.7% in April vs. 5.7% in March as per a median estimate.
4. IIP NUMBERS
Industrial production data will be released at 6:30 PM today and is set to contract for the 5th time in six months, coming in at (-1.5%) in March vs. (-1.9%) in February according to Bloomberg estimates reflecting the continuing weakness in the economy. Negative IIP data is unlikely to dent the mood on the street though with investors more focused on the election outcome rather than weak factory output which has dragged growth down to a decade low of 5% in India.
3. EXIT POLLS
Early predictions will start trickling in late Monday evening and are expected to be keenly watched by market participants looking for clues to corroborate their enthusiasm about a BJP led victory. The Election Commission did a last minute flip flop first saying exit polls will be banned till May 16th - the day of counting, but then clarified subsequently saying the results can be disseminated post 6:30 PM on the day polling ends, except in Andhra Pradesh where they will be allowed to be published only post the 13th. Not exactly flaunting a track record on accuracy, having got their predictions hopelessly wrong in the last two elections, exit polls are nonetheless important given their bearing on stock market movements. Markets would tank 7% if exit polls show the BJP getting fewer than 220 seats according to Vivek Mahajan - Head of Research at Aditya Birla Money speaking to the Wall Street Journal.
2. A FAREWELL FOR THE PM
On Wednesday May 14th, Congress President will host a farewell dinner for PM Mammohan Singh who demits office on May 17th after a decade at 7 Race Course Road. The outgoing Prime Minister will reportedly bid adieu to the nation in a televised farewell speech.
1. NATIONAL ELECTIONS OUTCOME
The week will culminate into the biggest spectacle of all times as counting begins on the 16th of May with results expected on the same day. Even Bollywood has taken a break with no release planned as all attention will be focused on who forms the next government with India glued to her television screens. The markets are expected to move 6-7% either ways on that day, depending on what the result outcome is. Elaborate arrangements are said to have been made across various constituencies with counting expected to begin post 7 am and finish between noon and 3 pm.
