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Trying to split bloc opinion in Mithilanchal

Darbhanga's 3-cornered contest seems to fulfil all the stereotypes on vote preference

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Kavita Chowdhury Darbhanga
In this northern Bihar town stands the imposing Lalit Narayan Mithila University, better known as the Darbhanga University.

Sajid Hussain, 26, and a Master’s student and also a university cricket player, is angry with the incumbent Lok Sabha member, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s cricketer-turned-politician, Kirti Azad.

“We students had lots of hope that he would develop the facilities here but nothing came of it.” Tufail Hashmi, his friend from the adjoining CM Arts College, describes how most of his seniors have left for jobs elsewhere, some even heading for the Gulf and Saudi Arabia. The students say local issues seldom figure in parliamentary polls.
 
DISSECTING DARBHANGA
2009
Total electorate: 1,307,067
2009 candidates:
BJP’s KIRTI AZAD got 239,268 votes (43.85%); RJD’s MD ALI ASHRAF FATMI was the runner-up with 192,815 votes (35.33%). Congress’Ajay Kumar Jalan got 40,724 (7.4 %) of the votes
2014
Total electorate:  2,413,160 (as on January 1, 2014)
Men voters: 1,287,663
Women voters : 125,497 and Others : 29
Total number of candidates: 15 (of which 3 are Independents) Main candidates in the fray:
BJP: Kirti Azad
RJD: Md Ali Ashraf Fatmi
JD(U):  Sanjay Kumar Jha
BSP: Durga Nand Mahavir Nayak
AAP:  Prabhat Ranjan Das

And, that there’s always a straight contest between a Brahmin (Brahmins constitute 22 per cent of the electorate) and a Muslim (18 per cent). Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) candidate M A Fatmi, former minister of state for education at the Centre (in the UPA-I government) and four-time MP has the Muslim support.

The contest here is perceived as a UPA versus Narendra Modi-led BJP fight, with the ruling Janata Dal (U) candidate, Sanjay Jha, a Maithili Brahmin like Azad, regarded as a “spoiler”.

Arun Jha, an employee of the university, says, “Maithili Brahmins usually vote as a bloc, so it will be interesting to see what happens with two of them in the fray.” Some fear that Fatmi could emerge winner by default.

Mirzapur Chowk and Tower Chowk in the heart of the town are bustling market areas, with every second establishment owned by a Maithili Brahmin. Prabhunath Jha concedes Kirti Azad has not worked for the constituency at all but “Modiji ke naam pe logon ka jhukaav hai (People are drawn towards Modi)” and “Change hona chahiye (There must be change)."

“Sanjay Jha is certainly the most capable candidate of the three, but I can’t waste my vote,” says 67-year-old Marwari businessman Mahavir Prasad Saraf.

In contrast to this affluent commercial hub is the Urdu Bazaar area, its Muslim residents living in abject poverty. Dr Usmani, a homeopath, says, “People vote in groups, so why not me?”

The “Modi factor” this time has certainly caused the Muslims to back someone of their own. So much so that developments in faraway Kishanganj are resonating here. Shafaqat Imam Geelani passionately talks of how “Akhtarul Imam saheb of the JD(U) had withdrawn from the race in favour of the Congress candidate just to stop Modi”. The “message” is clear, he asserts: “Muslims alone cannot stop him (Modi), they have to unite.”

Fatmi, say political observers, would benefit from not only the Muslim vote rallying behind him but the sizable Yadav vote (16 per cent) in the region. In 2009, the BJP had benefited from its alliance partner JD(U)’s support base, with some Muslims voting for Kirti Azad.

For a region that figures among the leading areas in the state in terms of migration, with few job options and its once-flourishing sugar mills shut, the “Modi factor” holds sway.

Ehsaan Ansari, a tailor, says, “Modiji bhashaan mein jo bhi kahen, voh Musalmaano ke ‘like’ nahi karte.”

The constituency will be keenly watched to see whether Muslim-Yadav combination holds sway or the “Modi factor” brushes off all competition, including avoiding a split in the Brahmin votes, which the JD(U) was banking on.

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First Published: May 01 2014 | 12:49 AM IST

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