 "BJP’s negative campaign gave Mahagathbandhan a landslide victory")
“If the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) loses the Bihar Assembly elections, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief Mohan Bhagwat is the man of the match,” Sanjay, a local journalist in Bihar's Supaul district, had told this reporter, ahead of the fifth and final phase of the elections.
The local journalist might not be way off the mark. From a head start few months ago, as was captured in some of the pre-election surveys of various agencies, including the one done by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), to complete capitulation — nothing seems to have gone right for the BJP in the Bihar elections.
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Almost a fortnight before elections were to begin in Bihar, the RSS chief had called for a review of the reservation policy. Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad was quick to latch on it and launched what he called Mandal-II. (Mandal committee had advocated for reservation to other backward classes). That rallied his supporters around the Mahagathbandhan. During the course of a tour through as many as 10 districts of the state that voted in the third, fourth and fifth phases, this reporter got a sense that consolidation of backward classes was indeed becoming a reality.
The BJP’s constant reference to Jungle Raj, a veiled threat of what would happen if there was a return to the RJD regime, only accelerated the consolidation. “Just because we stand for upliftment of the oppressed groups like Dalits and extremely backward classes, we are called jungles,” a Yadav in a village near Bidupur town in Raghopur Assembly constituency (part of Vaishali district) remarked. Many others echoed the same feeling.
The BJP was hoping for a split in the votes of Yadavs and other backward classes, something the party achieved in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. But Yadav's aggressive pursuit of Mandal-II seems to have worked for the Mahagathbandhan. Backward consolidation was quite visible in rallies of key leaders. While people would come on bicycles and in small vehicles to attend the rallies of Prasad and Janata Dal leader Nitish Kumar, venues of rallies of the BJP leaders would have rows of sports utility vehicles. And, the crowd was less animated at the latter. “Yeh garibo ki ladai hai (this is the fight of the poor),” Imanul Haque, a resident of Siwan who had travelled around 20 km to attend a Nitish Kumar’s rally, told this reporter.
What also worked in Mahagathbandhan's favour was the goodwill Kumar continues to enjoy. Even those who said they might not vote for him were generous in their praise for the Bihar’s chief minister. “In my opinion, the verdict is an endorsement of all the development work Nitish has done in the past 10 years. It should not be seen through the narrow prism of caste alone,” said Sanjay Kumar, director, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies.
NDA, on the other hand, seems to have suffered as a result of a jarringly negative campaign. Political observers say in rally after rallies, whenever the BJP used to target Kumar, the crowd would become quiet.
The BJP’s advertisement campaign, perhaps with a view to polarising voters along religious lines, also seems to have backfired. What it essentially did was to spur Muslim voters to come out in large numbers to vote. Record turnout in excess of 65 per cent in two districts- Katihar and Kishanganj — with a large Muslim population indicates this. Kumar, too, said in his press conference after the results were out that the verdict is the rejection of campaign aimed at polarising voters.
“BJP agar beef aur Pakistan ka mudda nahin uthati to jitney ki kaafi sambhavana thi (If the BJP had not raised the issues of beef and Pakistan, they had a better chance of winning elections,” a visibly upset BJP supporter told reporter in Purnea.
What perhaps worked against the BJP-led alliance was the perception among people that the Bihar package announced by the Prime Minister ahead of the elections was too little too late. “Isme hamare liye kya hai? Garibo ko Kendra sarkar se badi ummeed thi, Lekin kuch nahin huwa (what is there for us? The poor had expected a lot from the Centre. But nothing has happened,” Nawal Kumar, a driver in Hajipur, told this reporter.
