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The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will return to power in Uttar Pradesh (UP), exit polls on Monday predicted, while the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) powered far ahead of all other parties in Punjab. A hung Assembly was forecast in Uttarakhand, with the BJP marginally ahead in Goa and Manipur.
No exit poll could accurately predict the massive 300-plus seat majority for the BJP in UP in 2017. This time, exit polls give BJP a range of anything between 211 and 240 seats in the state, thus installing it comfortably in power past the 202-seat majority mark, but notching up a loss of between 75 and 100 seats over its 2017 performance.
The Samajwadi Party (SP) has posted a good result, say exit polls, at more than 100 seats, almost double its tally of 49 in the outgoing Assembly, but nowhere near the halfway mark.
The most remarkable element in the election, however, was the prediction for Punjab, which saw AAP winning its first major state. Exit polls varied widely, with some giving as many as 100 seats to AAP, but the range was between 60 and 100 seats, thus constituting a clean sweep.
The poll predictions suggested the Congress may have suffered the impact of intense infighting in Punjab, with its state chief Navjot Singh Sidhu playing a big role in the exit of party veteran Captain Amarinder Singh, who went on to tie up with the BJP. The BJP, however, was not seen as a big player in the state even with new friends: Amarinder Singh’s party was tipped to win single-figure seats with BJP’s former ally, Akali Dal, predicted to win around 18 seats.
In Uttarakhand, exit polls predict a tight fight, with the BJP marginally ahead, but both the BJP and the Congress within striking distance of power. Almost similar was the prediction for Goa, with the BJP predicted to win 18 of the state’s 40 seats and the Congress 15 — both below the majority mark of 21. This means a merry-go-round of horse-trading similar to events in 2017.
The BJP is set to win the most seats in Manipur, say exit polls. The BJP is likely to win 30 seats in the 60-seat Assembly — just one below the majority mark. The Congress may win 14 seats, they say.
The biggest impact of the exit polls will be felt by the Congress — which is losing power in an important state. Punjab has seen a five-cornered contest for the first time in recent history.
The Goa exit polls show there is some justification for the Congress grouse that the entry of the Trinamool Congress was dividing anti-BJP votes. And the sub-par tally of the BJP in Uttarakhand, where it was in power, suggests it has had to pay the price for the quick turnaround of chief ministers. If exit polls are accurate, then the role of the Governor in Uttarakhand, who is a military man and not a politician, will become central to government formation.
However, judging by the exit polls, the big gainer from the election is the SP. While it might not get to form the government, it will have an insistent voice in the UP legislature. The AAP, likewise, will now get a new pride of place with governments in two important states.
