The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has said the growth target of nine per cent envisaged for the 12th Five-Year Plan can be achieved only if inflation is brought down, and supply-side issues in agriculture are resolved.
"Without bringing inflation down from the current level, it would be difficult to sustain a high level of growth. This would require greater monetary-fiscal coordination and the alleviation of supply constraints, particularly in agriculture," said RBI executive director Deepak Mohanty.
Mohanty said achieving nine per cent growth between 2012 and 2017 would be a challenging task, since local factors would also play a key role in deciding GDP (gross domestic product) growth. "Hence, growth would have to be raised by an additional percentage point per annum, which is challenging because it would require a conducive global environment and policy reforms at home," he said.
Aiming to bring inflation down, the central bank has raised the repo rate by 350 basis points in the last one and a half years, and this has led to moderation in growth. Inflation has remained much above the central bank’s comfort zone. The wholesale price index rose 9.7 per cent in August on an annual basis, compared with 9.22 per cent in July. "Empirical evidence suggests the threshold level of inflation is in the range of 4-6 per cent," Mohanty said in Boston.
Emphasising on increasing agricultural productivity, Mohanty said there was a need to beef up rural infrastructure to remove bottlenecks in the supply chain. "There is, therefore, a need for another technological breakthrough to give fresh impetus to agriculture. At the same time, greater emphasis would have to be placed on the management of the supply chain, with investment in rural infrastructure," he said.
The central bank also called for an increase in agricultural growth to four per cent, compared with the current three per cent right. The regulator also said workforce needed to be removed from agriculture, and absorbed by the manufacturing sector. "A substantial part of this labour force would have to be ejected from agriculture not only to improve productivity in agriculture, but also in the overall economy," Mohanty said. It is inconceivable that they can all be absorbed in the services sector. Hence, industrial employment would have to expand, as also the relative contribution of industry, Mohanty said.
