Indian rupee witnessed a highly volatile session,retreating from an over one-week high hit earlier in the session, as domestic trade data of rise in exports failed to offset the global strength in the dollar after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report.
India's exports rose 4.25% in February from a year earlier, narrowing the trade deficit to $14.92bn and alleviating some concerns about the current account deficit. India's industrial output data is expected on Tuesday and inflation data on Thursday, as the reports will come ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's policy review on March 19. The partially convertible rupee closed at 54.41/42 per dollar versus its previous close of 54.285/295.
In the offshore non-deliverable forwards, the one-month contract was at 54.82, while the three-month was at 55.42. India's benchmark 10-year bond yield was steady at 7.84%, as investors turned cautious ahead of key data later this week, but an improvement in the trade deficit in February helped pull yields off the day's highs.
The one-year rate up was 1bp at 7.56% and the five-year OIS rate was unchanged at 7.22%. India's overnight cash rate was at 7.8/7.85% versus Friday's 7.7/7.8% for three day close. The ICE dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, fell to 82.601, down from 82.900 in late North American trading on Friday. Italian government bonds underperformed other euro zone debts on Monday, after Fitch cut the country's credit rating, but the move was contained by the US economic outlook and investors hunting for yield.
Japanese yen carved out a fresh 3-1/2 year low versus the greenback and fell to a 4-1/2 year trough on the Australian dollar, as investors reacted to a media report that the Bank of Japan might deliver bold stimulus sooner than expected.
