Investors grew more optimistic about most emerging Asian currencies in the last two weeks, adding bets on the Indian rupee and the South Korean won to the largest in more than 15 months, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
The survey of 11 currency analysts, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, showed that currency players became the most bullish on the two Asian currencies, as well as the Malaysian ringgit and the Philippine peso, since mid-October 2010.
They also were the most optimistic on the Taiwan dollar since February last year, and the most bullish on the Singapore dollar since early August, according to the survey. Currency investors doubled positions in the Indonesian rupiah to the largest since late August, the poll showed.
Emerging Asian currencies on Thursday rallied, as easing concerns over the euro zone’s debt crisis and the global economic slowdown boosted risk appetite and inflows to the area.
The regional currencies are expected to benefit from more incoming funds, although they may see some corrections, with some of them seen excessively bought and on possible intervention.
| POSITIONS IN $ VERSUS EACH CURRENCY | ||||||||
| Date | CNY | KRW | SGD | IDR | TWD | INR | MYR | PHP |
| 2-Feb | -1.00 | -1.45 | -1.56 | -0.86 | -0.95 | -1.50 | -1.59 | -1.07 |
| 19-Jan | -1.18 | -1.18 | -0.93 | -0.43 | -0.91 | -1.41 | -1.09 | -0.79 |
| 5-Jan | -0.92 | 0.02 | -0.42 | 0.23 | -0.17 | 1.10 | -0.60 | 0.02 |
| 23-Dec | -0.65 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.45 | 0.32 | 1.18 | 0.15 | -0.20 |
| 8-Dec | -0.45 | -0.18 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.95 | 0.03 | -0.15 |
| 23-Nov | -0.80 | 0.73 | 0.66 | 0.11 | 0.55 | 1.91 | 0.68 | -0.18 |
| 10-Nov | -0.64 | 0.08 | 0.40 | 0.04 | 0.29 | 1.48 | 0.31 | 0.48 |
| Note: CNY=Chinese yuan renminbi; KRW= South Korean won; SGD= Singapore dollars; IDR= Indonesian rupiah; TWD= Taiwan dollar; INR= Indian rupee; MYR=Malaysian ringgit; PHP=Philippine pesos | ||||||||
Meanwhile, investors trimmed bets on the Chinese yuan during the last two weeks, the poll showed.
The survey focused on what analysts believe are the current market positions in eight Asian emerging market currencies: Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso and Malaysian ringgit.
The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long on dollars. The figures included positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).
