RBI likely to maintain status quo: D&B

ANALYST'S VIEW

A drop in inflation rate to below 5 per cent and moderation in industrial production growth to 11.1 per cent, could imply that the Reserve Bank of India may maintain status quo in its quarterly monetary policy this month-end, business information company Dun & Bradstreet India said today.

"The only reason for a tighter stance could be to curb the surge in liquidity levels in the economy. The money supply growth rate is much above the targeted range and the current liquidity built up in the economy could breed inflationary expectations in coming months," it said.

In its monthly forecast, Dun & Bradstreet India said the index of industrial production may fall to 10.5 per cent in the month of June, 2007 and wholesale price based inflation may rise to an average of 4.5 per cent in July against 4.3 per cent in June, 2007. "

Even as certain inflationary pressures seem to have eased currently, high liquidity remains a concern. However, we expect the RBI to keep the main policy rates unchanged, although some policy tightening later in the year cannot be ruled out at this moment," said Kaushal Sampat, chief operating officer, Dun & Bradstreet India.

M&A deals till May 2007 worth $46.8 bn

The total number of merger and acquisition (M&A) deals in India in the first five months of 2007 are worth $46.8 billion compared with $20.3 billion in the whole of 2006 with telecom, pharma, healthcare, energy and IT / ITeS being the primary contributing sectors.

Manoj Vaish, President & CEO - India, Dun & Bradstreet said, "Worldwide, these figures were at $3.8 trillion with industries, energy & power, financial services, real estate and media & entertainment Industries taking the lead both in value and volume. Not surprisingly US alone accounted for 41 per cent of the total worldwide volume of M&A's", he added.

The comments were made at a conference on Mergers & Acquisitions: An effective way of creating value organised by Dun & Bradstreet along with Citi's Commercial Relationship Banking.