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The rupee surged as much as 2.8% on Thursday, hitting its highest in a month, as the US Federal Reserve's decision not to dial back its easy money policy is expected to provide a reprieve to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its policy making.
The rupee and the Indonesian rupiah stand to gain the most if foreign funds return to riskier assets in the wake of the Fed's surprise decision. Both bore the brunt of the recent sell-off in emerging market currencies since the Fed bank signalled in May that it may begin tapering stimulus this year.
At 12:00 pm, the rupee was trading at Rs 61.73 compared with previous close of Rs 63.39 per dollar. The unit rose to as high as 61.65/dollar, its strongest since August 16.
The benchmark 10-year bond yield was trading at 8.18%, after dropping to 8.14%, its lowest since August 8.
Currency dealers expect the rupee to trade near Rs 61 by the end of the trading session today. They also believe that the RBI may roll back some of the liquidity tightening measures announced earlier in the mid-quarter review of the monetary policy tomorrow.
The Fed's move means that the RBI will have greater flexibility if it wants to roll back some of the cash tightening steps it initiated since mid-July to stabilise the plunging rupee.
The RBI's decision to bump up its emergency funding rate by 200 basis points to 10.25% and cap banks' borrowing from it roiled bond markets and pushed up corporate borrowing costs, adding to strains on the already slowing economy.
State Bank of India, the country's largest lender, on Thursday raised its base rate, or the lowest rate at which it lends, by 10 basis points to 9.80%.
"A delay in the tapering agenda paves the way for the RBI to relook at the liquidity tightening measures put in place in July and possibly ease the restrictions. With the rupee already halving the losses seen from May to August, there might not be sufficient justification to keep those measures to place," said Radhika Rao, economist at DBS in Singapore.
"The policy commentary could adopt a move dovish and growth-supportive stance," she said, referring to the RBI's policy announcement after its meeting on Friday.
The new RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan is widely expected to keep the policy rate and the cash reserve ratio unchanged, according to a Reuters poll. The poll, which was conducted before the Fed decision, also expects the July cash tightening steps to be retained.
A resurgence of inflation to a six-month high in August has muddied waters for the central bank, which has been battling a falling rupee and trying to revive the economy with growth having slumped to a decade low.
