Rupee can depreciate another 4% against the USD by 2019-end

FPIs have turned negative and the budgetary announcement on tax surcharge has been a factor that has restricted their activity

The rupee appears to be moving down quite sharply since 31 July,  which was when the US Federal Reserve announced a rate cut even though our forex reserves have been increasing ($430 billion for the week ended August 9, as against $411.9 billion at the start of the financial year). 

The rate cut was an attempt to ensure that the strengthening US economy did not falter even as inflation remained low. Lowering of interest rates by the US Fed revealed a weaker economy, which should have made the dollar weaker; but that was not the case. In fact looking at