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Can China invade Taiwan? Here's what could happen if it really does

China and Taiwan have many reasons to avoid a war that could kill tens of thousands, devastate their economies and potentially lead to a nuclear conflict with the US and its allies

Howitzers fire munitions during an annual Taiwanese military exercise in Taichung, July 2020. The drills are aimed at repelling a Chinese invasion across the Taiwan Strait. Photo: Bloomberg
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Howitzers fire munitions during an annual Taiwanese military exercise in Taichung, July 2020. The drills are aimed at repelling a Chinese invasion across the Taiwan Strait. Photo: Bloomberg

Samson Ellis | Bloomberg
Xi Jinping’s Chinese Communist Party has threatened to invade Taiwan for more than seven decades. Now fears are growing among analysts, officials and investors that it might actually follow through over the next few years, potentially triggering a war with the U.S.

In September, People’s Liberation Army aircraft repeatedly breached the median line in the Taiwan Strait, eliminating a de facto buffer zone that has kept peace for decades. The party-run Global Times newspaper has given a picture of what could come, urging China’s air force to patrol the skies over Taiwan and “achieve reunification through military means” if it fires

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