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China's economic growth is expected to be at seven per cent in 2015 unless the central government imposes stronger-than-expected stimulus measures, according to Fan Jianping, chief economist at a state research institute.
A decrease in exports and property development, two "engines" fueling China to be the world's second-largest economy, will be the main cause of a slowing of growth, Fan, who works at the State Information Center under the National Development and Reform Commission, told an industry conference in Shanghai on Saturday.
Fan's forecast is in line with a median estimate of 51 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey as Chinese leaders have signaled they will tolerate a weaker expansion, leaving the economy heading for the slowest full-year growth since 1990. Chinese leaders will set a gross domestic product growth target of about seven per cent for 2015, according to 13 of 22 analysts polled by Bloomberg.
"I don't rule out that we will see on-year expansion lower than seven per cent in some single quarters next year," Fan said. He said his forecast was based on his agency's research, which uses China's industrial production as a key indicator to the economic growth.
Fan's remarks may cool down an improved sentiment in Chinese economy as gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by a better-than-for-cast 7.3 per cent in the third quarter from a year earlier. While the government has relaxed home-purchase controls and pumped liquidity to lenders, the economy also got support from a pickup in exports in September.
"In at least six months, economic growth is unlikely to pick up remarkably," Fan said. GDP expansion in three months from October is seen at 7.2 to 7.3 per cent, which will lead the full-year growth to about 7.3 per cent as reading in the fourth quarter has bigger weighting, he said. China set 2014 GDP growth target at 7.5 per cent.
China's government is holding off broad stimulus, with Premier Li Keqiang expressing a preference for policy improvements and People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan vowing to stick with a prudent monetary stance.
China's premier typically announces the annual growth aspiration at the National People's Congress in March, after policymakers meet late in the year at the Central Economic Work Conference to hash out policies.
China's economic growth remained unchanged at 7.7 per cent in 2013 and may ease to 7.3 per cent this year, according to the median estimate of 51 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey.
