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Global gold demand dropped by 12% to 915 tonne, a six-year low, during the second quarter as compared to the same period last year, mainly due to lower demand from consumers in India and China.
Jewellery demand dropped 14% to a three-year low of 513.5 tonne. The sharp drop in demand for gold jewellery was largely due to a downturn in consumer sentiment in India and China. For the first half of 2015, jewellery demand was down 8% year-on-year at 1,116.9 tonne.
However, demand in Europe and the US grew, driven by a mix of increasingly confident jewellery buyers and strong demand for bars and coins.
There are signs of improving demand in India and China going ahead, according to the World Gold Council's report.
There are signs of improving demand in India and China going ahead, according to the World Gold Council's report.
In China, slowing economic growth and a rallying stock market led to a 5% fall in demand to 174 tonne.
In India, the heavy unseasonal rains in Q1 and drought in Q2 impacted rural incomes and affected gold demand. In addition, a dearth of auspicious days for marriages in Q3 meant that wedding-related demand was unusually slow, leading to 23% fall in jewellery demand to 118 tonne.
Overall, in the first half, jewellery demand was down 3% to 268.8 tonne from 276.1 tonne (H1 2014). The US remained steady, with jewellery demand up for the sixth consecutive quarter by 2% (26 tonne). In Europe demand was up, with Germany up 7% and the UK and Spain both growing by 6%.
Global investment demand was down 11% to 179 tonne from 200 tonne in Q2 2014. India was the main driver of the fall, with investment demand down 30% to 37 tonne, due to uncertain price expectations and a buoyant stock market. This was countered by a rise in Chinese bar and coin demand, up 6% to 42 tonne.
In Europe, fears of a potential Greek exit from the eurozone saw retail investment in gold reach 47 tonne, a rise of 19% compared to last year. The US also saw strong demand, with retail investment increasing by 7%. There was a huge burst of activity in June, when bullion coin sales by the US Mint hit a 17-month high.
Elsewhere, central banks continued to be strong buyers of gold. Net official sector purchases totalled 137 tonne, with Russia and Kazakhstan the biggest purchasers. Despite a year-on-year fall of 13%, buying increased by 11% when compared with the first quarter of this year. It is the 18th consecutive quarter where central banks were net purchasers of gold.
Total supply was down 5% to 1,033 tonne, as an increase in mine production of 3% to 787 tonne in Q2 2015 was offset by declining recycling levels - down 8% to 251 tonne. The indication for H2 2015 is that mine production will slow as the gold mining industry continues to manage their costs and optimise operations in the face of challenging markets.
Alistair Hewitt, Head of Market Intelligence at the World Gold Council said, “It’s been a challenging market for gold this quarter, particularly in Asia, on the back of falls in India and China. The reverse is true for western jewellery markets, as increased economic confidence led to continued growth in consumer demand. It is fair to say that investment demand for the quarter remained muted given the continuing recovery in the US economy and booming stock markets in India and China during the quarter.
Jewellery market prospects look healthier for the remainder of the year with the upcoming wedding and festival season in India. In addition, falls in the gold price have historically triggered buying in price sensitive markets and we are already seeing early indications of this across Asia and the Middle East. Conversely, sharp falls in Chinese stock markets have shaken the largely consumer investment base and we are seeing early indications of interest in buying gold again - all illustrating the unique self balancing nature of gold demand and the diverse drivers which underpin it.”
Gold demand and supply statistics for Q1 2015
- Overall demand down 12% in Q2 2015 to 915 tonne compared to 1,038 tonne in Q2 2014.
- Total consumer demand – made up of jewellery demand and coin and bar demand – totalled 715 tonne, down 14% compared to Q2 2014
- Global jewellery demand was 513 tonne, down 14% compared to the same period last year, due to falls in China (down 5% to 174 tonne) as well as India (down 23% to 118 tonne). The US and Europe saw continued growth, with the US demand up 2% to 26 tonne, and Europe up 1% to 15 tonne.
- Total investment demand was down 11% to 179 tonne, compared to 200 tonne in the same quarter the previous year. Demand for bars and coins saw a 15% drop to 201 tonne from 238 tonne the previous year, as the sector was affected by an expected increase in US interest rates and a continued shift towards other asset classes, notably equities. ETFs saw outflows totalling 23 tonne, lower than the outflows of 38 tonne seen in the same quarter last year.
- Central banks continued to be strong buyers of gold, accounting for 137 tonne in Q2 2015, slightly down on the equivalent quarter last year, but up 11% compared to the previous quarter. It was the 18th consecutive quarter where central banks were net purchasers.
- Year-on-year quarterly mine production increased 3% to 787 tonne in Q2 2015, against 763 tonne in Q2 2014. Recycling levels were down 8% year-on-year to 251 tonne compared to 273 tonne in Q2 2014, resulting in total supply falling 5% to 1,033 tonne.
