As crowds of pro-democracy protesters swelled further here on Wednesday, a national holiday, Hong Kong's chief executive and his inner core of advisors have decided, with support from China's leaders, that their best strategy is to wait and hope that the disruption of everyday life will turn local public opinion against the demonstrators.
Leung Chun-ying, the chief executive, and his advisors have decided not to use force to disperse the demonstrations but also not to hold formal negotiations with protest leaders for now, said people with a detailed knowledge of the Hong Kong government's and Beijing's policies. Nor has there been any serious discussion of Leung's resigning, as the protesters, who number in the tens of thousands and have blocked three major thoroughfares for days, are demanding.
As night fell Wednesday, the streets of downtown Hong Kong filled with what appeared to be the biggest crowd since the protests began. Mostly teenagers and adults in their 20s, they were in a festive mood, many taking pictures of each other or writing notes about why they were demonstrating, which they affixed to an outer wall of the Hong Kong government's headquarters.
The city's leadership has concluded that it would be pointless for Leung to sit down with protest leaders, although a few informal contacts have been made with democracy advocates, and a few of Leung's friends have recommended actual negotiations. Beijing has given the Hong Kong government only a little room to negotiate the details of how the next chief executive will be elected in 2017 - the fundamental issue for the demonstrators.
"The government can tolerate the blockade of three or four or five areas and see how the demonstrations go, so the only way the demonstrators can go is to escalate it - spread it to more places, and then they cannot sustain it - or they will become violent," said a person who is deeply involved in the Hong Kong government's decision-making. If the demonstrators do become violent, the person added, "they know better than we do that they will lose support overnight." Like others interviewed about the government's intentions, he insisted on anonymity because he was not authorised to speak with journalists.
An advisor to the government also said that officials' emerging view was that Leung should bide his time. "The consensus is to wait and patiently deal with the crisis - it is not easy, but we shall do our best to resolve it peacefully," the advisor said.
The strategy carries risks, for both the local and the national governments, because it in effect cedes momentum to the protesters and allows them to drive events going forward. For China, continuing protests could inspire more dissent on the mainland, despite its censors' attempts to block discussion of the events. Chinese Human Rights Defenders, an advocacy group, said Wednesday that China had already detained or intimidated dozens of people for perceived transgressions like expressing support for the protesters on social media.
For the Hong Kong government, the risk is that the city's image as a stable financial centre will be harmed and that the government's intransigence, rather than the protesters' actions, will be blamed for the short-term economic disruption. Chan Kin-man, a co-founder of one of the main protest groups, Occupy Central With Love and Peace, said at a news conference Wednesday that Leung would not outlast the demonstrators.
"If he believes that if he keeps on dragging on without answering to our demands then people will go away, forget about it," said Chan, who added that protesters would be willing to skip work to remain in the streets. "If they are not afraid of tear gas, I don't think they will be afraid of their supervisors and bosses," he said.
A student protest leader, Lester Shum, said Wednesday that students were prepared to occupy government buildings if their demands were not met, repeating a threat made Tuesday by another student leader. But Chan openly questioned that idea, saying that the demonstrators could find themselves spread too thin.
The leaders of the demonstrators have repeatedly insisted that they will only pursue non-violent civil disobedience. In terms of public opinion, violence would be risky for either side: When the outnumbered police resorted to tear gas on Sunday night, they provoked widespread anger, and more people came to protest on Monday. The lack of a cohesive leadership among the protesters, who are divided into factions, combined with the ambitious nature of their demands - fully open elections for Leung's successor, as well as his resignation - have prompted Hong Kong officials to conclude that the protest leaders are unlikely to accept half-measures in any negotiations.
©2014 The New York Times News Service
