Is the world staring at a textbook emerging market crisis beyond Turkey?

Total emerging market borrowing increased from $21 trn in 2007 to $63 trn in 2017 and EMs need to repay or refinance around $1.5 trn in debt in 2019 and again in 2020

Emerging-market stresses have been building since at least 2013. Investors may have forgotten the effect of the “taper tantrum” on the so-called Fragile Five – Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa – a term coined by Morgan Stanley to describe their vulnerability to capital outflows. Monetary accommodation, lower current-account deficits and growth disguised the underlying challenges, attracting more capital to those markets.

The textbook recipe for an emerging-market crisis requires a large dose of debt and an associated domestic credit bubble, including misallocation of capital into uneconomic trophy projects or financial speculation. Then add a weak banking sector, budget deficits,