Is this really the Brexit election?

The rapidly approaching 2017 general election has already been dubbed “the Brexit election”. Many assume that Brexit will be the decisive issue in the campaign. A recent poll by IPSOS-MORI suggests that just over half of Britain’s adults view Brexit as the most important issue facing the country (with the NHS second and immigration third).

But will the issue be as important at the ballot box as people think? There’s another way of looking at this. We can compare the vote shares for Britain’s parties at the 2015 general election with the 2016 EU referendum vote in each